Six by Six or Fix by Trick? Kabir’s Proposal Deepens Political Suspicion
Ranil’s Old Delimitation Playbook Resurfaces
IMF Strings Tighten: Government Struggles as Budget Reliefs Disappear
From Rejecting to Regretting: JVP Now Haunted by the Ghost of Provincial Councils
No Provincial Council Elections
Last week, our ‘Inside Politics’ column revealed that the government was preparing for a large-scale political operation aimed at holding the provincial council elections. We also reported—based on reliable sources—that the president was planning to present a highly popular budget, with no new taxes or tax increases of any kind. For the first time since the 2022 economic downturn, he was also considering tax reductions across several sectors.
Additionally, our column was the first to disclose that the president had committed to tackling the drug menace with full force. We revealed his pledge to dismantle domestic drug networks and disrupt the international redistribution of narcotics smuggled through the country. We also highlighted that these bold efforts have placed the president in a politically precarious position.
Supporting our earlier claims, Minister Lal Kantha confirmed last week that the government had decided to hold the provincial council elections next year. Several junior ministers echoed this confirmation. Following our report, there was a noticeable surge of interest among opposition parties. Notably, around 15 MPs from the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) informed the opposition leader of their intention to resign from Parliament and contest the provincial council elections, hoping to be elected as Chief Ministers.
Previous plans
According to our sources, the government was planning to hold the elections before the next Sinhala New Year, with the president expected to officially call for elections by January.
However, despite these earlier indications, recent developments and decisive internal discussions suggest that the provincial council elections may either be postponed or not held at all. The government is believed to have several reasons for reconsidering its decision, with recent heated debates within its ranks being a significant factor.
We also previously reported on the tense nature of discussions between the government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The president’s firm rejection of a proposed property tax, along with the administration’s intent to reduce taxes in the lead-up to the elections, has reportedly drawn the attention of the IMF.
Budget Reliefs Withdrawn
Last week, the government held a series of discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), during which the Fund reportedly advised against implementing any tax reductions. According to sources, the IMF firmly stated that such measures would be imprudent given the current economic conditions. Furthermore, it is believed that the IMF communicated that tax cuts would hinder the achievement of the economic targets agreed upon with the government.
In light of this cautionary stance, it is understood that the President has decided to withhold the concessions he had initially planned for certain sectors. This development raises questions about the fate of the 2026 budget proposals.
IMF not favoured
Information received suggests that the government has opted to reduce taxes only for low-income earners to a limited extent—a move the IMF has not opposed. The Fund’s primary objection appears to be directed at lowering the overall tax thresholds.
Another factor influencing the government’s hesitation to hold or postpone the provincial council elections is its waning popularity in rural areas. Recent cooperative society elections, often seen as indicators of grassroots political sentiment, have not yielded favourable results for the ruling party. These elections have revealed a growing trend of support for the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and other opposition parties.
In response, the government reportedly commissioned a confidential survey to assess its standing among the electorate. The survey results, received last week, confirmed the rising popularity of the SJB in rural regions. SJB leader and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa has significantly boosted his public image and appeal among rural communities.
Sources within the “Inside Politics” column indicate that these survey findings are a key reason the government is reconsidering whether to proceed with the provincial council elections.
Aggressive anti-drug campaign
Additionally, the President’s aggressive campaign to combat drug-related crime—an initiative that has placed him under serious security threats—is another factor contributing to the election dilemma. The government believes that under such heightened security concerns, public appearances by the President pose significant risks. His popularity and public image remain the administration’s strongest asset.
Now one year into its term, the government has yet to deliver any substantial achievements beyond initiatives centred around the President. Given this context, embarking on a nationwide campaign that could compromise the President’s safety is deemed unwise by security authorities. Consequently, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has expressed the view that this is not an opportune moment to hold elections aimed at securing popular support.
Internal Discussions Within the JVP
Sources close to political circles indicate that several internal meetings were held within the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) last week. Although the President initially considered holding provincial council elections, ongoing internal deliberations within the JVP have led the party to reassess its stance on these elections.
The JVP has historically opposed the provincial council system. In 1987, when President J.R. Jayewardene’s government signed the Indo-Lanka Accord to establish provincial councils, the JVP strongly resisted the move, organizing street protests that eventually escalated into an armed anti-government struggle. Given this background, the party now faces a critical question: how can it reconcile its foundational opposition to provincial councils with the idea of participating in elections under that system?
As a result of these discussions, the JVP is currently considering two options—either to advocate for the complete abolition of the provincial council system or to push for an indefinite postponement of the elections. Despite its opposition to the system, the party has also raised concerns about the need for a separate dialogue to address the political issues in the North and East.
Government’s Position and Strategic Delays
The government has not officially announced that provincial council elections will be cancelled. This hesitation stems from concerns that such a declaration could be used by the opposition as a rallying cry against the administration—a point that was discussed extensively within the JVP’s inner circle.
After considerable debate, the JVP concluded that the government may adopt a strategy similar to that used during the “Good Governance” administration led by Ranil Wickremesinghe. At the time, the government introduced a delimitation process in Parliament, which critics viewed as a deliberate attempt to undermine the public’s voting rights. Wickremesinghe reportedly feared that if elections were held, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP or “Pohottuwa”) would secure control of the provincial councils.
In 2022, after being elected President by Parliament, Wickremesinghe again cited delimitation issues as a reason to delay provincial council elections—though many believed his true concern was the potential success of the main opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Today, the current administration appears to be following the same playbook, using similar tactics to avoid holding elections.
The government is carefully managing the narrative to avoid accusations of merely replicating Wickremesinghe’s strategy. Meanwhile, the Election Commission has stated that there is currently no legal framework in place to conduct provincial council elections.
What is in the future?
Taking the Election Commission’s statement into account, it can be assumed few things would happen towards the postponement of the election. The first among these would be the President summoning an all-party meeting and posing the question to initiate discussion on whether the election should be held according to the old or new system. A new round of discussion on the delimitation could start with this, which would follow the appointment of a parliamentary committee or a parliamentary select committee to discuss this.
Despite this, if they decided to hold the elections, few could go to the Supreme Court against this decision. If this process takes place within at least two years, the government could postpone holding the provincial council elections. If any of the above events take place, it is the first move by the government to postpone or not to hold the provincial council elections.
While this process is taking shape president could call for renewed discussion among Tamil and Muslim parties with the intention of separation of power. The President could hold these discussions how the North and East can be developed, MPs’ powers and responsibilities. By doing this government would find a way not to hold the provincial council elections.
Mawrata news accuracy
By last week, what dominated national headlines across the country was the first Cabinet reshuffle of the Malima government, carried out by the President without any prior publicity.
In this sudden reshuffle made by the President, the most notable change was the removal of the Ministry of Ports and Civil Aviation from the government’s most powerful minister, Mr Bimal Ratnayake. Consequently, the opposition’s main focus turned toward Mr. Ratnayake.
The opposition, highlighting this development politically, told the nation that a political crisis had emerged within the government and that the President had taken steps to remove one of the most important ministerial portfolios previously assigned to Bimal. The opposition also raised suspicions that this decision was influenced by the “Container 323” controversy related to the Ports Ministry.
Ports ministry
However, while the President took the Ports Ministry away from Bimal, he simultaneously brought the Urban Development Authority under his purview—a move that was considered highly significant.
Nevertheless, last week, through the inside politics column, we carried out a special revelation regarding Bimal—something that no other media outlet in the country had reported. In that revelation, we pointed out that Bimal had disappeared following the Cabinet reshuffle.
It was revealed that after assuming duties at the Urban Development Authority, Bimal had not visited his ministry or provincial offices, and that his usually active Facebook page had not been updated since the reshuffle.
Given the past ideological clashes between the Malima government and the JVP, and between Malima and Bimal himself, many speculated that his sudden disappearance was a consequence of those internal conflicts.
However, according to our investigation, we revealed that the day after the Cabinet reshuffle, Bimal had left the country. Since several international conferences were being held around that time, we also inquired whether Bimal was attending any of them.
At that time, the Commonwealth Conference was being held in the State of Barbados, and we contacted Mr. Mujibur Rahuman, who was participating there. He confirmed to us that Bimal had not arrived in Barbados for the conference.
As the country he had travelled to could not be confirmed, we reported on the Mawurata newspaper’s front page that week under the headline:
“Bimal missing after the Cabinet reshuffle.”
Missing Bimal reappears from China
By noon on Saturday, after our newspaper had hit the stands that morning, our Mawurata News website also carried the same story, disclosing that Bimal had left the country.
The impact of our revelation—both in print and online—was such that within just a few hours, the missing Bimal resurfaced.
That afternoon, he updated his Facebook page with a photo, stating that he was on a visit to Guangxi Province, China, and had held discussions with Chen Gang, Secretary of the Guangxi Committee of the Communist Party of China, and other senior officials.
Until then, even within the Malima government and the JVP, many had no idea what had happened to Bimal, and they only learned of his whereabouts after his Facebook post.
Although we too received confirmation that Bimal was in China, our investigation did not stop there. We sought to find out why he had secretly left for China without informing anyone, and what he was doing there.
Bimal has long been known as a pro-China figure, maintaining close ties with the Communist Party of China (CPC). In fact, apart from JVP General Secretary Tilvin Silva, Bimal is regarded as the JVP’s strongest link with China.
Thus, we learned that there were deeper secrets behind this sudden trip. Our further investigation revealed that Bimal had traveled to China on a special invitation from the International Department of the Communist Party of China, headed by Liu Haisong.
JVP deligation
A JVP delegation, led by Bimal, had participated in this visit. Earlier, we had reported that a 38-member JVP delegation led by General Secretary Tilvin Silva had also visited China, staying there for more than two weeks, during which the Chinese government gave them a warm reception. In that report, we revealed that discussions were held to strengthen ties between China and Sri Lanka, the Communist Party of China and the JVP, and even between the Presidents of the two countries.
Upon his return, Tilvin hinted to the media that the JVP would need to remain in power continuously for about 20 years to bring about national change—suggesting a governance model similar to the Chinese Communist Party.
At the time, the opposition accused the JVP of planning to dismantle the multi-party system and introduce a one-party system like China’s.
Therefore, Bimal’s sudden visit to China should not be seen as an isolated one, but as a continuation of Tilvin’s earlier trip.
New representative
Among the top five leaders of the JVP, Bimal ranks third—after Anura and Tilvin. While Tilvin plays a key role in party decisions, Bimal, as the parliamentary leader, wields influence over government-related and legislative decisions. The hidden secret behind this trip appears to be that Bimal has taken Tilvin’s China engagement to the next level. He held several rounds of discussions with Chinese officials, reportedly focusing on strengthening relations between the two parties.
Special responsibility
It is also said that during this visit, the Communist Party of China assigned Bimal a special responsibility—to oversee the immediate implementation of the agreements signed by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake during his visit to China, including over 70 bilateral agreements.These included major investment projects such as a US$3.9 billion oil refinery in Hambantota, which have yet to commence due to external pressures, mainly from the U.S.
The Chinese company Sinopec has been ready to start construction, but U.S. opposition has stalled the process. We previously reported that U.S. Ambassador Julie Chung had strongly objected to this project, and that the U.S. State Department had also issued a stern statement while the President was visiting America. Meanwhile, concerns have also arisen over several upcoming Chinese projects in Colombo Port City.
Considering all this, China has reportedly entrusted Bimal with the task of ensuring that these agreements and projects move forward—making him, in effect, China’s key representative in Sri Lanka.
JVP- CPC ties
The discussions also covered how JVP–CPC ties could be leveraged, and how to secure support from other influential parties.
Given that the Urban Development Authority is now under Bimal, it is believed that large-scale development work will be carried out under his supervision, including major urban renewal projects in Colombo, expansion of railway lines, and construction of new expressways with Chinese assistance.
Thus, it appears that China has decided to channel its political relations with the JVP through Tilvin, and its governmental ties with the Malima administration through Bimal, paving the way for a new wave of Chinese investments in Sri Lanka.
Warning signs ahead
Historically, Sri Lanka has often found itself unwittingly caught in global geopolitical games when dealing with China. Whenever Colombo has drawn closer to Beijing, both India and the United States have taken a cautious stance toward Sri Lanka.Hence, with the Malima government now turning more openly toward China, it is expected that major international developments will unfold in the coming weeks.
Our Inside Politics column can confirm that the U.S. is preparing to issue a strong warning to Sri Lanka in the coming days.
Prdiction
As with all our previous accurate revelations, we are confident this too will prove correct. According to our reliable sources, the U.S. State Department has already begun reacting to Bimal’s secret trip to China last week. Further warning statements are expected from Washington soon. Moreover, we have learned that the Trump administration is likely to take an unprecedented decision regarding Sri Lanka by late November or early December. The key question now is whether the government, in aligning itself closely with China, is prepared to face the significant risks this entails.
MR’s history
As history shows, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa took similar risks by sidelining India and the U.S., aligning directly with China—borrowing heavily to build highways, airports, conference halls, and stadiums. Although he served two terms constitutionally, his downfall came through allegations of corruption and nepotism, compounded by strained relations with India and the U.S.—factors many believe led to his electoral defeat. The current President, fully aware of that history, appears to have prepared countermeasures and strategies to face such challenges as he embarks on this new China-centred course.
“Six by Six” Proposal – “Doubt over Kabir”
Last week, through the front page of Mawurata newspaper, we reported a story under this headline, stating that Mr. Kabir Hashim had been entrusted with preparing a report for the Leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and Leader of the Opposition, Mr. Sajith Premadasa, on how a possible alliance between the SJB and the United National Party (UNP) could be built.
We published that report, not based on hearsay, but on highly reliable information we had received at the time. Accordingly, we revealed that Kabir had been meeting with top UNP leaders in various places, engaging in discussions, and gathering proposals needed for the preparation of that report.
We also noted, in a special remark, that according to information visible and available to us, Kabir was preparing this report in a manner that would benefit the UNP and its leader, Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe. There were not one or two, but several reasons for that assessment.
Close with Ranil
The main reason was that Kabir Hashim has maintained a close relationship with Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe from the very beginning, not just recently. When Sajith broke away from the UNP and formed the SJB, Kabir too left the UNP in support of Sajith—but continued to maintain his personal relationship with Ranil.
It is no secret to anyone within the SJB that in recent times, Kabir has taken certain actions within the party that favoured Ranil’s political interests and potential victory rather than those of Sajith or the SJB.
This is because Kabir’s long-held belief has been that the SJB should, in one way or another, return to the UNP fold—ultimately merging the two parties by bringing the SJB down to the UNP’s level. His goal, in essence, has been to dismantle the SJB’s leadership and bring the party forward under Ranil’s leadership, eventually placing it in the hands of Ranil’s close associates such as Sagala and Vajira.
Unity call
After the last local government elections and Ranil’s consolidation of power, the main idea that emerged among both senior members and grassroots supporters of the two parties was that they should unite.
Accordingly, at both the SJB Working Committee and the Management Committee meetings, it was unanimously agreed that if such a merger were to take place, it must happen under the leadership, initiative, and primacy of the SJB.
Therefore, Sajith, in good faith, appointed Kabir—who is known to be a long-time supporter of Ranil—to prepare the proposal and submit it to him. Sajith did so sincerely, recognizing the need to unite the two parties and their members.
However, although Sajith assigned this task to Kabir with goodwill, we were fully aware that at some point Kabir would turn this effort in favour of Ranil.
That is why, two weeks ago, Mawurata’s front page carried a story titled “Doubt over Kabir.”
According to the revelations we made, Kabir prepared this proposal only after holding discussions exclusively with Ranil’s faction.
Kabir did not consult a single SJB Member of Parliament or any of the nearly 1,600 SJB local government representatives. Instead, he spoke only with Ranil’s groups in various locations and compiled a report that gave no significant place to the SJB.
Stable voter base
Even though the SJB has a large parliamentary representation, a stable voter base of around 2.5 million, is the main opposition party, and holds the position of Leader of the Opposition, Kabir’s report placed the balance of power not with the SJB but with the UNP—which has no sitting MPs, no electoral wins, barely 250,000 votes, and continues to lose every election.
A clear example of this bias can be seen in one particular clause reportedly included in Kabir’s proposal. According to our information, the proposal states that for the upcoming Provincial Council elections, the Nomination Committee should include six members from the SJB and six members from the UNP.
Through this clause, Kabir has effectively placed the SJB—with its 2.5 million votes—on the same level as the UNP—with just 250,000 votes.
Nomination
The likely outcome of such an arrangement would be that in any future Provincial Council election, victorious SJB candidates might not even receive nominations, while UNP candidates—who have no chance of winning—could end up getting nominations instead.There is also a possibility that the position of Chief Minister could be filled by a UNP candidate, and that ministerial positions within the provincial councils could be allocated to UNP members rather than SJB members.
We are well aware that our exposé has angered Kabir to some extent. Yet there is nothing we can do about that. We publish only what we can confirm with 100% accuracy. Moreover, our loyalty lies with the SJB—the main opposition party—and its supporters. We do not hesitate to say so openly.Therefore, whenever something detrimental to the SJB occurs, it is our duty to reveal it—not to please anyone, but to keep our readers informed.
‘Sirikotha’ involved
Accordingly, when we look at the proposal presented by Kabir, our suspicion is whether Kabir prepared it inside Sirikotha (the UNP headquarters), together with Ranil.
Did Kabir draft this proposal based on Ranil’s political blueprint aimed at ending Sajith’s political career?
Did he, in line with that plan, attempt to hand over the SJB’s legal and political ownership to figures like Sagala and Ruwan, thereby sidelining the Premadasa family and senior SJB members?
A challenge
Therefore, in this week’s ‘Inside Politics’ column, we pose a single challenge to Kabir:
If possible, let him publicly declare whether the proposal for the joint committee on Provincial Council election nominations indeed recommends equal representation—six from each party—or not.
On the other hand, it appears that when Kabir was appointed to prepare this proposal, Ranil also planned for it to be structured in such a way that it would disadvantage the SJB, create internal discord within the party, and ultimately lead to its division.
That plan seems to have succeeded to some extent, as evident from the fact that since the submission of the proposal, Kabir has begun to face criticism and attacks from within his own party.
