Trump’s Trade War Throws Sri Lanka off Balance
SJB, the Youngest Political Party, Attracts Youth to Its Fold
Modi Avoids Port Visit but Digitally Inaugurates Sampur Project
AKD’s Government Struggles to Balance Relations with China and India
We exposed it first
Readers of this column have grown increasingly loyal as our revelations consistently prove accurate, often ahead of other media outlets, which sometimes seem unaware of key developments in the global political landscape. Exactly one month ago, on March 2, we published an exclusive report revealing, for the first time, that the United States, one of the leading buyers of Sri Lankan exports, was preparing to impose tariffs globally and enter a ‘trade war.’
We specifically highlighted the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico and further exposed that other countries, including Sri Lanka, could also be affected, an angle no other media had reported at the time. Our Inside Politics column predicted that the full list of targeted countries would be made public on April 3, and true to our word, that announcement came precisely as forecast.
Below is a reproduction of our original disclosure.
Last week, we briefly mentioned in a State Secret report that the new US government led by Donald Trump is preparing to impose large-scale tariffs on other countries in the world. The Trump government has already taken steps to impose high tariffs on countries such as China, Mexico, and Canada, and we had mentioned it that Sri Lanka could also be on the next list of tariffs. Accordingly, this time, through inside politics, we are ready to report special information that no one knows about in this story. Accordingly, the information we have indicates that Trump is currently preparing a list of new countries that should be subject to such tariffs.
Trump is using a very simple criterion. That is, to discourage those imports by imposing higher tariffs on countries from which the United States imports more goods in international trade. And to increase the goods exported from the United States to those countries and maintain the import-export gap at the same level. Accordingly, Trump is set to unveil this new list on April 2nd, and many are saying that Sri Lanka will be included in this list.
The reason for this is that there is a huge gap between the goods Sri Lanka imports from the US and the goods Sri Lanka exports to the US. The value of goods Sri Lanka imports from the US is US$ 0.5 billion. However, the US is a major buyer of Sri Lankan exports, with an annual value of US$ 2.5 billion. In particular, the US is the main buyer of Sri Lankan garments. Accordingly, the US’s import-export gap with Sri Lanka is over US$ 2 billion. Against this background, many are pointing out that Trump will also include Sri Lanka in the next list of countries to impose tariffs to minimize this trade gap. Accordingly, some predict that the US will impose a 25% tariff on Sri Lanka, while others point out that it could be a 100% tariff. Accordingly, economic analysts believe that if Sri Lanka is included in this US tariff list, Sri Lanka will face a major collapse in the export sector.
In our investigations in this regard, we could see a similar situation that had arisen between neighboring India and the United States in the past. While India also exports most of its goods to the United States, it imports goods of a lower value from the United States. However, in a study conducted by India regarding Trump’s new economic policy, India realized this and immediately increased its imports from the United States and took steps to minimize the import-export gap with the United States. Accordingly, India has been able to manage the crisis by now. However, Sri Lanka cannot suddenly increase its imports from the United States in such a way, and it does not have a large amount of dollars to spend for it. Accordingly, if Sri Lanka is included in Trump’s next tariff list, it will undoubtedly be a fatal blow to Sri Lanka, which is trying to recover from bankruptcy.’
‘inside politics’ – 2025.03.03
Sajith said
When we made this disclosure, neither the local media nor the politicians knew that such a thing would happen. That is why no one responded to it. But because they suddenly understood the seriousness of this, after our disclosure, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa drew the attention of the government to this incident in Parliament. Sajith said that if immediate action is not taken in this regard, the country’s export sector will be seriously endangered, and the government should immediately discuss with the relevant parties and take steps to resolve this issue in a way that benefits Sri Lanka.
Minister Vijitha Herath, who immediately stood up after Sajith’s disclosure in Parliament, said that the government has decided to send a special delegation to Washington to discuss the matter with the US government.
Sajith raised this issue with the government for several important reasons. The key point was that the United States remains Sri Lanka’s largest single source of foreign income through exports. To put it in perspective, while the International Monetary Fund has given Sri Lanka a loan of $2.9 billion, the country earns over $3 billion each year from exports to the U.S. In 2024, Sri Lanka’s total export earnings were $16 billion, with 7% of that—about $3 billion—coming from the U.S. Of that amount, 12.7% came from ready-made garments, with even smaller contributions from services.
Did they do as told?
However, although Vijitha Herath stated in Parliament that an expert team would be sent to the US to discuss this matter, there is a serious question as to whether the matter was done as they said. India did not behave in this way when it was reported that such a tariff was to be imposed. Despite all the work he had to do, Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stopped all work the very next day and left for the US. They were able to reduce the 50% tariff that was to be imposed on India to 26% because of the speedy action taken. Indian Prime Minister Modi then left for the US and discussed the matter with the US authorities. They also took steps to immediately reduce the duties imposed on American goods by India and reduce the import and export gap between the two countries.
However, no such intervention was seen from the Sri Lankan President, the Foreign Minister, or the Trade Minister. Accordingly, there is a serious question as to whether the President and the government were able to understand the seriousness of this tariff.
When we made this disclosure about a month ago, several leading businessmen in the country expressed their views on the matter under the ‘inside politics’ banner, most of them said that this tax would be around 25%. They also pointed out that even if such a tax were imposed, it would be a serious situation in maintaining industries. However, because the amount has now been increased to 44%, businessmen are currently facing a serious difficulty.
However, as mentioned above, many people have serious doubts about the government’s response to it. Accordingly, the opposition is now preparing to question the government about whether it sent an expert team to America to discuss this issue as stated in the parliament. It is also reported that the opposition has now decided to question the members of that team, if they were sent, who led the discussions, who the other officials were, and what they discussed there.
Why is Modi coming?
Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is coming to Sri Lanka for a three-day visit against a backdrop of Donald Trump attacking Sri Lanka with tariffs. Although many are trying to portray Modi’s visit as a beautiful one, according to the information we have, it is not as beautiful as it seems. The reason for this was that even before Modi’s visit, the famous Indian businessman Gautam Adani, who is considered Modi’s right-hand man and closest friend, had clashed with the government and left Sri Lanka. At the same time, a major operation was launched by the government targeting Adani both inside and outside the parliament. Many such complaints had also been reported to the Indian authorities through various parties in the country.
However, before Modi’s visit began, it was reported that Modi had planned to go to Sampur and inaugurate the renewable energy project after his arrival in Sri Lanka. However, due to the conflict that the government had with Adani even before Modi arrived, a last-minute notification from India had been sent to Modi to inaugurate the project digitally from Colombo instead of going to Sampur.
There was a special reason for that. That is, many years ago, when former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh tried to start the Sampur power plant, the JVP strongly opposed it. In particular, Wimal, who was with the JVP at that time, built a huge protest against the Sampur power plant throughout the country, and a group including Lalkantha had also taken steps to file a complaint against the Sampur power plant with the Human Rights Commission.
Consequently, what was said from the Indian side was that by going with such a group of protesters to lay the foundation stone for the Sampur power plant, some in the international community would ridicule it. Accordingly, rather than going to Sampur with Anura to lay the foundation stone for the power plant, Modi had decided to do it digitally from Colombo.
Will not go to the port
In the meantime, something else unexpected happened. It was based on the completion and opening of the construction work of the Colombo Port West Jetty, which was implemented with the financial contribution of Adani. Earlier, it was planned that both Modi and Adani would go to the West Jetty of the port and inaugurate it. However, it has been learned that Modi has decided to suspend that opening as well. It is said that raising some issues on the part of Sri Lanka has also influenced Modi’s decision.
However, through all these happenings, the image that is depicted to the world concerning Sri Lanka is not clear. Because at this moment, when the country is bankrupt, we should show the world that Sri Lanka is a country with a very suitable environment for investment and that investing in Sri Lanka is very profitable. But the last-minute departure of India’s Adani from Sri Lanka and Modi’s decision to refrain from opening a development project in the south do not give a good signal about Sri Lanka’s investment program. Instead of those economic factors, the government has proposed that Modi visit the Sri Maha Bodhi and the Ruwanvali Seya and worship them.
Meanwhile, a major controversy had emerged in the country by last Thursday due to the last-minute Indian media report that a security agreement was to be signed during Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka. The hard-line Frontline Socialist Party, which broke away fraction from the JVP, called a press conference on Thursday and emphasized that the government should immediately provide the people with the security agreement contents that is to be signed.
Moreover, the frontline leaders had stated in the media that the government should immediately answer who the group from Sri Lanka participated in preparing the security agreement, what they discussed, etc. However, no proper response has been received from the government in this regard.
Meanwhile, the President appointed a special committee on Thursday evening to investigate Trump’s tariffs. Several government representatives, including the Treasury Secretary, the Central Bank Governor, and several prominent garment businessmen, were included in it. Several members of this committee also called Opposition Leader Sajith and requested him to immediately provide time to discuss the matter.
Modi’s next game plan
Meanwhile, after concluding his Sri Lankan tour, Modi is set to embark on another special mission, the inauguration of the Pamban Bridge, the last section of the railway bridge connecting Sri Lanka and India, was built on the Indian side. In the past, there was a train service between Talaimannar and India, it was destroyed by a cyclone in 1964.
During the previous government, the then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe held talks with India to rebuild the bridge, but the talks were stalled due to opposition. However, last week, India’s ‘The Hindu’ newspaper reported that Modi is coming to Tamil Nadu directly from Sri Lanka and is scheduled to inaugurate the Pamban Bridge, the last stop of the railway line connecting India and Sri Lanka, built in Rameshwaram, on April 6. The news also stated that the remaining sections of the railway line are scheduled to be built in the future as per the plan.
However, it is said that Modi is preparing to give a special message to the leaders of the Malima government in Sri Lanka this time. It is said that Modi will give a number of special messages to Sri Lanka, including the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution stated in the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement, which was prepared with the intervention of the Indian government. Consequently, the government will certainly have to hold the Provincial Council elections in the future.
However, the government is currently waiting for the outcome of the local government elections scheduled to be held on May 6. Because the government has put all its weight on somehow to exceed the 50% votes target in this Provincial Council election. It is also learned that the government is ready to take a tough decision on whether to hold the Provincial Council elections or not if it is not possible to obtain a 50% majority for any reason.
However, the message given by Modi based on the Provincial Council elections during this visit is very strong. The message given through the opening of the Pamban Bridge after the visit to Sri Lanka is also very strong. Accordingly, taking all these factors together, it can be said that Modi’s visit this time will be a very decisive one from the government’s perspective.
With China
With Modi’s visit and US President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs, the government is currently left with only a few options. The main one is to reach some agreements with China. Although some agreements and agreements were reached between the two countries during the President’s last visit to China, China is currently hanged up all of them.
The reason is that Sri Lanka has not fulfilled any of the promises made to China so far. In particular, although it was said during the visit to China that Chinese research vessels would be allowed to enter Sri Lankan waters without harming China’s pride and that the relevant agreements would be amended and implemented immediately, the government has not been able to fulfill any of those assurances so far.
With Modi’s arrival, the issue related to the Chinese research vessels is sure to escalate further. Accordingly, it should be noted that the government’s response to China after Modi’s visit will be very decisive.
SJB is 5 years old
The Samagi Jana Balawegaya had its fifth anniversary at Hyde Park, Colombo, on Thursday in a grand manner. The convention was held under the patronage of party leader Sajith Premadasa, Significantly, it was visible that Sajith had taken steps to provide opportunities to many young people who had shown their talents and come forward in recent times within the party.
One of them was Prasad Siriwardena, a talented, young MP got elected to Parliament for the first time from Gampaha. The second was Charith Abeysinghe. The third was Waruna Rajapaksa. Within a few months, due to Prasad’s talents in and outside Parliament, Sajith gave Prasad the position of Opposition Leader Media Spokesperson, and Sajith also delivered a speech at the convention.
There are several reasons for this. One of them is that a few young MPs who are still in the party are still following Ranil and secretly dealing with him. The other thing is that a few people who claim to be seniors are still trying to link the SJB to the UNP. It can also be seen that some others are trying to grab power in the SJB by claiming that they have a royal ‘yoga’ in their horoscope. Also, there are still a few people in the party who make fun of Sajith before he comes to the meetings. Among all these, it can be seen that the seniors and the youth are giving space to young people like Prasad to go on a new political journey.
However, it can also be seen that various parties, including the UNP, are not very interested in giving space to these young people. For this reason, despite Prasad being given a speech at the convention, a news story posted on UNP-friendly social media platforms since Thursday morning said that the speech given to Prasad had been cut at the last minute.
They had also given it a share of publicity on social media. However, it turned out to be a smear campaign targeting the SJB, as Sajith had given the speech to Prasad without any changes as planned. Accordingly, Prasad delivered a fast-paced speech that captured the attention of party members within the time allotted to him.
Imtiaz’s joke
In addition, big news that was published in some media last week was that the SJB Chairman, Imthiaz Bakeer Markar, had resigned from the position and that a letter in this regard had been sent to the party. Although people like Sarath Fonseka, who left the SJB, took action to slander the SJB through the media, ‘Mawrata’ did not even take action to publish a news item stating that Imtiaz had resigned.
This is because we did not see that resignation letter released to the public. Although the media had only reported it, at least Imtiaz had not made a public statement regarding it. Since the news did not receive much importance within the society, many people had said that the news was most likely false. However, regardless of the truth of that story, another news report last week stated that Imtiaz had resumed his duties as the SJB chairman. Accordingly, the news of Imtiaz’s resignation had become a joke for three or four days.
