First Capital Research (FCR) assigns a probability of 65% for policy rates to remain unchanged at the upcoming monetary policy review while also assigning a 35% probability for a relaxation in policy rates.
Moreover, considering the persistent negative liquidity in the banking system, they have assigned a lower probability of 20% for a cut in the SRR while placing majority bets on the SRR to remain unchanged.
“However, we expect a complete normalization of the economy with the country being able to secure necessary financing from IMF and other multilateral creditors while regaining its access to the global
capital market,” the company said.
“Thus, the complete stabilization of economic indicators may give rise to a possibility of sizeable rate cuts towards 1H2023, with a significant probability of fast-tracking the revival of the economy.”