Anura Kumara Dissanayake Signals Impending Fuel Price Hike
Ranil Wickremesinghe Recovering from Heart Surgery, Likely to Step Back from Politics
Namal RajapaksaVoices Concerns Over Sri Lankan Air Inquiry
Caught Off Guard
At present, the main issue drawing global attention is the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran. With 22 days having passed since the conflict began, many Middle Eastern countries have become involved, raising the risk of a global energy crisis. Within just 22 days, the Middle East war has managed to disrupt the entire world.
Amid this backdrop, the ‘Malima’ government is already facing a severe fuel and gas crisis. Like “tucking in a stray snake,” Sri Lanka has now been drawn into another diplomatic issue following an attack on an Iranian vessel within its Exclusive Economic Zone. Immediately after the incident, the Navy stated that it was not caused by an attack. However, U.S. authorities confirmed that the Iranian vessel was sunk due to a torpedo strike launched from one of their submarines. Following the attack, Iran issued a special statement warning all parties involved to be prepared to face the consequences. It remains unclear whether this was a direct warning to the United States or an indirect warning to Sri Lanka. This uncertainty arises because Iran may have received indications that Sri Lanka is leaning toward a pro-U.S. stance due to the incident.
Coast Guard vessel
Meanwhile, we reported last week in the “Inside Politics” column that, under an agreement between the Sri Lankan government and the United States, a coast guard vessel and ten helicopters are to be provided to Sri Lanka. It was also reported that Sergio Gor, Special Representative of U.S. President Donald Trump for South and Central Asia, is expected to visit Sri Lanka in May to hand over these assets. Due to the close relationship between Gor and the President, it was noted that the President could even contact Trump directly through him if necessary. However, we also highlighted the risk that Gor’s visit could trigger a diplomatic crisis, especially as the Iran war continues to escalate.
In addition, a problematic situation has arisen regarding the remaining sailors from the attacked Iranian vessel, as well as those from a third Iranian ship, who are currently being held at the Welisara Naval Base. Although the government initially stated that the third vessel would be moved beyond Trincomalee Port limits, it is still anchored about 19 kilometers off Colombo within Sri Lankan waters. The government claims this is due to a mechanical failure that has rendered the vessel unable to sail.
Gor Arrives Secretly
Against this backdrop, an unexpected and highly confidential development took place last Wednesday. Sergio Gor, Trump’s special representative, suddenly arrived in Sri Lanka. He was not alone—another key figure arrived from Washington at the same time: Michael Jeremiah. Jeremiah is a powerful figure within the White House and a close associate of President Trump. He serves as a senior official in the White House National Security Council, one of the highest advisory bodies on security matters. He is also considered one of the officials responsible for shaping U.S. policy in South Asia and is known to operate largely behind the scenes. Given that the Middle East war has reached a critical stage, the unannounced joint visit of Gor and Jeremiah to Sri Lanka is seen by many as significant.
Meet President
The day after his arrival, Gor met with the President for discussions. Although the exact details are not publicly known, reports indicate that the talks focused on the war in Iran and development activities at the Colombo, Hambantota, and Trincomalee ports. Some sources suggest that Gor may have discussed investment opportunities in these three ports with the President.There is also a specific reason behind this. About a month ago, a discussion on Sri Lanka took place in the U.S. Senate, which we previously reported in the “Inside Politics” column as follows:
We Reported Earlier
Last week, a meeting of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee was held, attended by Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia, Paul Kapur. The discussion centered on implementing U.S. foreign policy in South Asia and selecting relevant strategies. During this session, Kapur made several significant remarks about Sri Lanka.
He stated that Sri Lanka has now become one of the most important maritime routes in the Indian Ocean and South Asia. Not only Middle Eastern oil shipments, but major global import-export routes pass close to Sri Lanka. Although Sri Lanka and its maritime region had not previously received much attention in Washington, the current situation means they can no longer be treated as just another South Asian country. He noted that China appears to have recognized this earlier and has been aggressively increasing its influence in Sri Lanka, already securing control over the Hambantota Port. He also described the 2022 visit of a Chinese research vessel as a major warning signal. Therefore, he stressed that both the U.S. and India must closely monitor developments.
What Should Be Done?
When asked what steps should be taken to realign Sri Lanka toward the United States, Kapur responded that although Sri Lanka is emerging from a severe economic crisis, it lacks a proper economic plan. He suggested that the U.S. should help Sri Lanka develop such a plan and support it through the International Monetary Fund. He also pointed out that Sri Lanka is struggling with foreign debt restructuring and attracting investment. Therefore, the U.S. should help strengthen Sri Lanka’s ties with India.
Kapur further stated that Sri Lanka is currently under significant Chinese influence due to heavy borrowing for infrastructure projects. While some of this debt burden has been reduced, the country remains constrained.
He also emphasized the need to rapidly increase military cooperation with Sri Lanka. Rather than establishing a U.S. military base, he suggested joint naval operations with India, along with providing Sri Lanka with necessary military equipment. He also highlighted the importance of developing mechanisms to monitor drug trafficking in the Indian Ocean.
Overall, Kapur’s remarks indicate that Sri Lanka may be in a relatively advantageous position. In particular, there appears to be an opportunity to leverage international support to attract investment and recover from the economic crisis.
— 22 February 2022 (“Inside Politics”)
Gor at the Colombo Port
Accordingly, many suspect that Gor’s sudden visit was linked to exploring investment opportunities in Sri Lanka’s ports, as discussed in the U.S. Senate. A significant incident during his visit further fueled these suspicions. Even before arriving in Sri Lanka, Gor had informed authorities that he wished to conduct an inspection tour of the Colombo Port. After meeting the President, Gor went directly to the Colombo Port. His visit had not been publicly announced, and even port employees only became aware of it when security at the port was suddenly tightened.
Port Inspection
Upon arrival, Gor went straight to the area where the gantry cranes are installed. He climbed to the top of one of the cranes and spent a considerable amount of time observing the Indian Ocean and the positioning of the Colombo Port. After this, he proceeded to the port’s “Pilot Station,” where he again spent a long time studying the surrounding area. He then visited the Eastern Terminal and the Western Terminal, which are operated by India’s Adani company, continuing his observations there as well.
This has raised a key question among many: why did Gor, who arrived in Sri Lanka so suddenly, conduct such a tour of the Colombo Port without prior notice? Why did he spend so much time atop the cranes observing the Indian Ocean and its surroundings? As a result, many suspect that if the Middle East war reaches a critical stage, the United States may be preparing to bring its naval vessels to Sri Lanka in an emergency. It is also reported that Gor is planning a similar visit to the Hambantota Port.
Minister in the United States
Another notable development related to Gor’s port inspection occurred on March 14 at the U.S. State Department in Washington. On that day, Sri Lanka’s Minister of Ports and Civil Aviation, Anura Karunatilaka, held discussions with officials from the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs regarding the development of Sri Lanka’s ports and aviation sector.
During these talks, U.S. authorities engaged in extensive discussions on improving infrastructure at Sri Lanka’s ports and airports. Many believe that Gor’s visit and inspections of the Colombo and Hambantota ports were a direct follow-up to these discussions.
However, while details of Gor’s visit have emerged, there has been almost no information released about Michael Jeremiah, who arrived in Sri Lanka with him. This has drawn attention, prompting Samagi Jana Balawegaya MP S.M. Marikkar to question the government in Parliament regarding Jeremiah.
Amid the ongoing Middle East war, there is growing uncertainty over whether these potential U.S. investments will benefit Sri Lanka or create new risks. Some argue that under current conditions, such investments could expose the country to serious dangers. The United States has previously opposed investments by countries like China in Sri Lankan ports. Therefore, questions remain about how China would respond to increased U.S. involvement. Similarly, there is uncertainty over India’s reaction, as well as how countries aligned with Iran might view these developments.
Was Anura Misled?
Last week, we reported in the “Inside Politics” column about a discussion in which the President decided to increase fuel prices by Rs. 24 in response to the Middle East crisis. Although officials had recommended an increase of Rs. 80, the President initially rejected this and reduced it to Rs. 24.
However, new information suggests that officials may have provided incorrect advice during that discussion. The President had proposed reintroducing the QR code system to limit fuel usage, but officials reportedly opposed it, claiming it would be ineffective. They argued—with supporting figures—that although the QR system was introduced during the 2022 fuel queues to control usage, it had not achieved its intended results.
Despite this, just three days later, the President decided to reintroduce the QR code system. This raises serious questions about why officials initially advised against it and whether misleading data was presented. Reports indicate that the President has already received information regarding this matter.
At a subsequent media briefing, the President himself admitted that the system was reintroduced despite being aware of potential issues. This suggests that the decision was made without proper planning or preparation. This was further confirmed as the public continued to face numerous difficulties even days after the QR system was reintroduced.
Ranil’s Surgery
Another report we published last week stated that Samagi Jana Balawegaya leader Sajith Premadasa and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe were expected to meet on the same stage this week. This meeting was to take place at a commemoration event for Gamini Dissanayake, organized by Navin Dissanayake.
However, at the time of reporting, Ranil was already receiving treatment at a private hospital in Colombo for a heart-related condition. This condition first became publicly known when he was presented in court following an arrest by the Bribery Commission, during which his lawyers submitted medical reports detailing a long-standing heart issue. By last week, his condition had worsened. After about a week of treatment at a private hospital, doctors advised that he required heart surgery. His family then decided to carry out the procedure in Singapore rather than in Sri Lanka.
Immediate Surgery
Accordingly, Ranil was admitted to Mount Elizabeth Hospital in Singapore, where doctors decided to proceed immediately with surgery. Reports indicate that it was a complex operation lasting approximately nine hours. Due to its seriousness, his brother and sister traveled to Singapore, along with several senior UNP members including Vajira Abeywardena, Sagala Ratnayaka, and Talatha Athukorala.
According to available information, the surgery was performed on a section connected to the heart. Following the procedure, doctors strongly advised him to limit political activities and avoid stress. He has also been advised to remain under hospital care for at least three more weeks. The successful completion of the surgery was publicly announced by MP Ravi Karunanayake in Parliament, who stated that Ranil’s condition is now improving.
However, due to this situation, Ranil will be unable to attend the Gamini Dissanayake commemoration. It is also likely that his political activities will be significantly limited moving forward. Under these circumstances, the UNP may have little choice but to move toward closer cooperation with the Samagi Jana Balawegaya, with discussions between the two parties expected to accelerate after the commemoration event.
Sajith Ready to Take Responsibility
Friday, the President suddenly decided to come to Parliament to brief it on the situation arising from the Middle East war. He also informed that, after his speech, a special meeting with party leaders would be held. Initially, it was announced that the President would address Parliament at 1:00 p.m., followed immediately by the party leaders’ meeting.
However, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa objected, stating that he needed time to respond to the President’s statement and requested that the meeting be delayed by about half an hour. He had even planned to meet the Leader of the House, Bimal Rathnayake, to convey this request.
Eventually, the President rescheduled and delivered his speech at around 11:00 a.m. Immediately after the speech, Sajith stood up and said he would join the party leaders’ meeting with a delay, as he intended to respond to the President’s remarks. Until then, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) would be represented at the meeting by its General Secretary, Ranjith Madduma Bandara. Sajith then proceeded to deliver a strong response to the President’s statement.
Meanwhile, Sajith convened a special management meeting of the SJB last week. The purpose was to discuss what steps the party should take if the country is pushed back into a severe economic crisis similar to that of 2022 due to the Middle East war. As a responsible opposition, Sajith appointed a special committee to develop strategies to manage such a crisis. The committee includes Ranjith Madduma Bandara, Tissa Attanayake, S.M. Marikkar, Mujibur Rahuman, and Harshana Rajakaruna. Its task is to recommend both short-term and long-term measures to mitigate any potential crisis.
Jayakody’s Trip Cancelled
These days, the minister facing a major political crisis within the government is Power and Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody. A case has been filed against him in the High Court by the Bribery Commission over an incident during his tenure as Chairman of the Fertilizer Corporation. Additionally, the opposition has lodged complaints against him regarding the importation of substandard coal and has also submitted a no-confidence motion against him to the Speaker.
Amid all this, Jayakody had planned a six-day official visit to India last week, with prior arrangements made in coordination with Indian authorities. However, due to the ongoing Middle East war, India itself is facing challenges, and Sri Lanka was informed that facilitating the visit would be difficult under the current circumstances.
The complication was that Jayakody had already booked his flight tickets. Ultimately, after several rounds of discussions, the visit had to be cancelled at the last moment—just half an hour before departure—due to the inability to finalize arrangements.
Namal Takes the Issue International
A dramatic turn of events occurred last week when the Bribery Commission informed the court about a statement allegedly made by former SriLankan Airlines CEO Kapila Chandrasena. According to the Commission, Chandrasena had stated that Rs. 60 million from bribes related to an Airbus deal was given in three instalments to former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, while additional funds were allegedly given to former Minister Piyankara Jayaratne and Sharmindra Rajapaksa, the son of Chamal Rajapaksa. This revelation received widespread media attention.
However, within hours, another major development emerged. It was reported that Chandrasena had submitted an affidavit to the court claiming that the statement had been obtained under pressure by the Director General of the Bribery Commission, Ranga Dissanayake. This was also raised in Parliament by MP Chanaka Madugoda, who released the affidavit to the media.
At the time these developments unfolded, MP Namal Rajapaksa was attending an event in New Delhi. From there, he consulted senior party members and has now decided to take the issue to the international stage. He plans to lodge complaints with the Geneva Human Rights Commission, the Inter-Parliamentary Union, and the United Nations.
After returning to Sri Lanka, Namal also held discussions with senior members of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) regarding the current crisis. He reportedly informed them that, based on information he has received, the situation could worsen further by June–July. He also mentioned that a foreign country had advised him that all parties in Sri Lanka should work together with the government to face the looming challenges.
