“What would Sri Lanka look like today if the Aragalaya had never happened?”
This is a question a foreign embassy official asked a journalist.
“Then the Rajapaksas would be preparing Namal for 2029…,”
The journalist replied without hesitation.
The final chapter of the biography of J. R. Jayewardene notes that a recurring theme throughout his life was the notion of “what might have been”. In other words, it raises the question: if Dudley Senanayake had not died at that time, what course might J.R.’s political destiny have taken?.
In fact, the answer to the question of what might have happened if there had been no Aragalaya is simply this: The Rajapaksas would still be ruling the country today.
When the Aragalaya began, the Rajapaksas appeared politically unassailable – like an empire on which the sun never set. Although the Samagi Jana Balawegaya was the main opposition and Sajith Premadasa served as leader of the opposition, the Rajapaksas strategically brought Ranil Wickremesinghe, who had lost his parliamentary seat at the 2020 general election, back into Parliament through the National List. This move was widely seen as an attempt to counter Sajith and create divisions within the Samagi Jana Balawegaya.
Leaders of the Podujana Peramuna, including Namal Rajapaksa, mocked and insulted Sajith, calling him a fool and a madman. Even the JVP, which had only three MPs, lent its support to this. Anura Kumara once said that Sajith’s brain should be examined. Lalkantha said that Ranil’s entry into Parliament should be appreciated and that Ranil, not Sajith, was suitable for the post of Leader of the Opposition. Rohitha Abeygunawardena and Mahindananda Aluthgamage of the Podujana Peramuna said that Ranil would soon become the leader of the opposition.
In reality, at that time there was no contest for the presidency or for government. The contest was for the post of Leader of the Opposition. Both Ranil and Anura were fighting for that position. Ranil wanted the post of Leader of the Opposition within Parliament. Knowing that he would not get that position in Parliament, Anura tried to become the country’s opposition leader by blowing up the vote base of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya.
Amid all this, while people were hiding in their homes out of fear of COVID, Sajith and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya gathered a massive crowd at Galle Face and fired the first shot against Gota and the Rajapaksa family. This was at a time when health authorities had banned public gatherings due to COVID. When people gathered at Galle Face, although supporters called for surrounding the Presidential Secretariat, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya decided to hold the protest within sight of the Secretariat and to surround it in the next phase. This was in November 2021.
Sajith and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya launched their second protest campaign on March 16, 2022. Gathering a massive crowd, they surrounded the Presidential Secretariat that day and set fire to effigies of Gota.
Next, Hirunika Premachandra, the leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya women’s front, led a group of women to surround Gota’s residence in Mirihana.
After that, Sri Lankan youth, under the leadership of the Frontline Socialist Party, surrounded Gota’s Mirihana house. At that point, Gota used the police to attack the protest.
When youth social media leaders, including those from the Frontline Socialist Party, called on people to come onto the streets to protest against this attack, Anura Kumara issued a statement urging people not to take risks by joining leaderless struggles. This was due to the power struggle between the JVP and the Frontline Socialist Party. Ranil’s UNP also issued a statement urging people not to engage in risky struggles. However, Sajith, issuing a statement as Leader of the Opposition, called on people to come onto the streets without fear to oppose the government, and said that this protest had no party-political character.
In a way that neither Anura nor Ranil expected, the protest became extremely successful. Along with this protest, the sporadic queues for fuel and gas that existed in various places began to grow. As queues spread across the country, protesters set up camps at Galle Face. After that, the JVP and the UNP also moved into Galle Face and sharpened the struggle. The Samagi Jana Balawegaya also set up camps at Galle Face. The common slogan of all of them was the following:
“Gota go home
Maina go home
Kaputa go home.”
On Ranil’s advice, UNP Mayor Rosie provided drinking water and toilet facilities to the Galle Face protesters. However, later a battle broke out between the JVP and the Frontline activists to claim ownership of the Aragalaya. During the Aragalaya, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya came to Colombo in May 2022 with a massive march from Kandy, chanting “Gota go home” in support of the struggle.
Fearing that Sajith and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya would take leadership of the Aragalaya, the JVP and the protesters attacked Sajith when he came to the protest site at a time when Rajapaksa thugs had attacked the Aragalaya. It was a life-threatening attack. Even so, Sajith and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya did not stop supporting the Aragalaya. Because Sajith, Anura, Ranil, and the Frontline activists all wanted to smash the Rajapaksas’ sun-never-setting empire. The reason was that they knew the Rajapaksas could not be defeated at an election.
“Alright, if the Aragalaya had not happened…?”
If the Aragalaya had not happened, Gota would still be president today. The reason is that at the 2024 presidential election, Sajith, Ranil, and Anura would all have contested; the vote would have been split into two or three parts, and there would have been a strong possibility of Gota winning.
If Gota had won, he would have appointed Namal as Prime Minister. Then by now, Namal would certainly be preparing for the 2029 presidential election.
“Let’s drive out the Rajapaksas…”
That is now the main slogan of Sajith, Anura, and Ranil. At present, not only are the Samagi Jana Balawegaya, the UNP, and the JVP holding public meetings to drive out the Rajapaksas, but it is also certain that opposition parties are secretly holding discussions to unite all opposition parties and nominate a common candidate to defeat Namal in 2029.
The Rajapaksas went home thanks to the Aragalaya. Frightened by the Aragalaya, the Rajapaksas suppressed it and made Ranil who was the most trusted member of the opposition loyal to the Rajapaksa family to protect their family. Ranil became president by showing the Aragalaya and frightening the Rajapaksas. Anura Kumara hijacked the Aragalaya, turned it into his victory, and became president. The Frontline Socialist Party, which started the Aragalaya, gained nothing. Sajith, who first supported the Aragalaya and set an example by encouraging protesters to surround the Presidential Secretariat, did not get the presidency. Hirunika, who cleared the way for protesters and surrounded Gota’s Mirihana house, could not even become an MP. But if the Aragalaya had not happened, the Rajapaksas would still be ruling the country today.
