The LG-election was scheduled to be held in February 2022. Ranil, who had entered parliament on the national list at that time, thought that if the LG-election was held, the UNP would disappear and Sajith and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya would become even stronger. He offered this bribe to the SLPP government. The SLPP was also afraid that if it went to a LG-election, the vote base of 6.9 million won in the 2019 presidential election and the 2020 general election would collapse and Sajith would carve his path to winning the next presidential election with LG-election.
In reality, if the LG-election had been held then, the SLPP was expected to win a majority of local government institutions. Because by then there was no oil queues or gas queues. Sajith and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya were also in a position to fight side by side with the SLPP in the by-election. At that time, no one was talking about the JVP. The JVP was expected to get the 3% it always gets. If the SLPP were to lose that vote and win in the local government bodies, there would never be a ‘aragalaya’ in Sri Lanka. The reason is that Gota’s government has the political strength to suppress it even if there is a ‘aragalaya’ due to the small number of votes.
But the SLPP government, without thinking about any of this, postponed the small election by swallowing Ranil’s rope to prevent Sajith from coming power and to finish Sajith. At that time, the JVP, was afraid of the elections, and was silent.
When the struggle began and Mahinda had to give up the Prime Minister’s post, Gota invited Sajith to take over the Prime Minister’s post. Sajith did not say no. He presented conditions.
Abolition of the executive presidency
Gota’s resignation from the presidency at a specific time
Holding a general election
Giving Sajith the power to select the cabinet and forming an all-party government
The SLPP did not agree to these conditions. The Rajapaksa family did not want Sajith to become Prime Minister either. While Eran Wickramaratne and other MPs representing the Samagi Jana Balawegaya were discussing the conditions in one room of the Presidential Secretariat, Ranil was kept in the other room to take oath as Prime Minister under the influence of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa family. Gota’s book after leaving the presidency clearly states that when he invited Sajith to take over as Prime Minister, Sajith did not say no, but that Sajith put forward conditions.
If Gotabaya had accepted Sajith’s conditions and made Sajith the Prime Minister and held a general election, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya would have been able to win a majority of seats, but it would have been difficult to get 113. A deadly battle would have occurred between the Podujana Peramuna and the JVP for the opposition and the Podujana Peramuna would have become the main opposition. The JVP would have been able to win about 20 seats. Even during the ‘aragalaya’, the JVP had not made a big leap. Initially, Anura and the JVP did not support the aragalaya. Anura had also issued a statement saying not to go to aragalaya without leadership’s approval. When Sajith was attacked at the aragalaya site that day, Anurat came to the site by a secret route and left. The JVP came to the fore when Ranil tried to become president by using the votes of the SLFP, which they called a bank robber, to dislodge the Samagi Jana Balawegaya.
‘They are all lying and killing each other…’
People gave life to the JVP by saying so.
When Gotabaya fled the country, fearing aragalaya, the Speaker called an all-party meeting with the tri-service commanders and the IGP and passed a resolution that Gotabaya and Prime Minister Ranil should resign immediately. Ranil ran away, stirred up the Rajapaksa family and the SLFP, and got Gotabaya to appoint him as the acting president. If it had not happened so, the president would have been the Speaker. The prime minister would have been Sajith. An all-party government would have been formed. If such an all-party government had gone to a general election, the opposition would have been the SLPP. The JVP would have been in third place. Sajith would have won a majority of seats as the prime minister of the all-party government, even if it had not been 113. If that had happened, there would have been no presidential election as the executive presidency would have been abolished.
Ranil defeated by Sajith and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya. The reason is that all the media in Sri Lanka planted news that Ranil would break the Samagi Jana Balawegaya and form a coalition government. The JVP started to rise from there. Ranil and the UPFA gave the JVP and Anura the strength to finish Sajith. To show that Sajith was afraid of debating with Anura, Independent Television gave Anura airtime to debate alone with an empty chair without Sajith.
Today, Ranil supporters who are shouting that we should protect the right bank gave Anura oxygen by saying that the next presidential election will be a battle between Anura on the left and Ranil on the right, saying that Sajith’s politics is over. Ranil’s opponent called Anura and hyped Anura.
But if the LG-election scheduled for 2023 was held, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya would have won. By then, the JVP could become a major force, so the JVP could have won second place and the SLFP a significant number of local government institutions. Even then, Ranil and the SLFP conspired to prevent Sajith from winning a small number of votes and becoming president.
If Ranil did not break the SLPP in the 2024 presidential election, Ranil would not have been able to contest the presidential election. If that were the case, Ranil would have to withdraw from the presidential race. If that were the case, Sajith could have won.
The reason is that the SLPP, which united and presented a common candidate and swallowed Anura, would break the SLPP votes and Ranil would have to withdraw from the race because Sajith would take the minority vote. If that had happened, the former UNP MPs who are now orphaned by the UNP could have united under Sajith and been elected to parliament and become ministers. Even if the SLPP lost the presidential election, it would have been possible to win a significant number of MPs.
Basil finally realized that the JVP would win the game him and Ranil playing to finish off Sajith, and that the JVP would get the SLPP votes, and pressured Ranil to go for a general election. If there had been a general election like that, Sajith would have won by at least one more seat. If the JVP had gone to a general election first, JVP candidates would not have gained much public traction. Anura, who has public traction, got 42% in the presidential election. If there had been a general election then, Ranil would have had to go with the SLPP. If the party had gone to the election as a government without splitting the party, the SLPP could have won a significant number of seats. But that would have been if Ranil had made Mahinda the Prime Minister and Ranil had gone to the election with the SLPP.
When you do all these calculations, it seems that Anura won because of Ranil’s and the SLPP’s hatred for Sajith and not because of anything else. Even now, some people are spreading that hatred that Namal is coming ahead of Sajith. Even JVP theorists are spreading that opinion to eliminate Sajith and keep Anura in the presidency. If you hate Sajith, it is not Sajith who will be destroyed, but the JVP that will be strengthened. I don’t know if the former ministers who slandered Sajith and his family will see Jumper in their dreams tonight and say, ‘Sajith can’t be allowed to come.’ That’s what they say, ‘If the fish eats the wrong fish, you cats will suffer.’
