With just hours to go before the Tamil Nadu elections on April 23, the new survey shows just how close the battle of the heavyweights DMK and AIADMK will be
With just hours to go before Tamil Nadu’s 234 constituencies go to the polls on April 23, a new opinion poll emerged on Tuesday, offering a clearer picture of just how close the elections will shape up to be.
Indeed, while previous surveys have suggested a clearer lead for the major alliances, data from this opinion poll suggest that the entire election hinges on a set of 60 swing seats, with very tiny margins of error between the DMK-led alliance and the AIADMK+.
According to the Dinamalar opinion poll, the DMK alliance is likely to lose about 12-14 percentage points of votes as compared to 2021. However, not all of these will go to the AIADMK alliance, due to the growing influence of Vijay’s TVK and Seeman’s NTK.
In comparison, the AIADMK is likely to lose about six percentage points of votes over the same period.
How big of an influence could the TVK and NTK be?
According to the opinion poll, the number of new voters in the state this time is 14.6 lakh—a higher turnout than usual—who form 2.5 per cent of the total voter base in the state.
This is expected to translate into 23 per cent of votes for Vijay’s TVK, which has significantly targeted the youth and women voter bases.
With TVK’s 23 per cent and NTK’s 7 per cent adding up to 30 per cent of the total vote share and polarising the vote base, it is predicted that the major parties’ margin of victory—40-45 per cent of votes—will drop to 35-36 per cent.
The opinion poll claims that this lowered target would give the AIADMK four percentage points more than the DMK—a 36 per cent target, versus the ruling party’s 32 per cent.
With such a photo finish in the cards for the elections tomorrow, the Dinamalar poll also pointed out that one of the biggest deciding factors in this tight contest would be not just the swing state performance, but also the whopping 18 per cent of the undecided voters it came across.
All eyes are now on May 4, when the numbers will reveal just how much the TVK and NTK could have polarised the polls, and which of the heavyweights win because of it.
