The latest tit-for-tat measures between India and Pakistan could once again raise the spectre of conflict breaking out between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
India and Pakistan have cancelled visas for their citizens to each other’s countries as tensions ramp up between the nuclear-armed neighbours following an attack in Kashmir that killed 26 people.
The victims were mostly Indian tourists who had been visiting Pahalgam, a popular tourist destination in the Indian-held part of the territory, which both nations claim as their own.
In response to Tuesday’s attack, India closed a border crossing, suspended a water-sharing treaty and downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan – which it blames for the assault.
The Indian government did not publicly produce any evidence connecting the attack to its neighbour, but said it had “cross-border” links to Pakistan.
Pakistan has denied the accusations and a previously unknown militant group calling itself Kashmir Resistance has claimed responsibility.
On Thursday, India’s foreign ministry said all visas issued to Pakistani nationals would be revoked, effective from Sunday.
It also advised Indian citizens not to travel to Pakistan and announced other measures including cutting the number of diplomatic staff and closing the only functional land border crossing between the nations.
Pakistan’s measures
In return, Pakistan said it was closing its airspace to all Indian-owned and operated airlines and suspending all trade with India – including to and from any third country.
As a result of the airspace closure, Air India announced that flights to the UK, as well as to North America, Europe and the Middle East, would be forced to take an alternative longer route.
Similarly, Pakistan also announced the cancellation of all visas under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme – which allows some people to have a “Special Travel” document exempting them from visas.
‘Act of war’
The moves are just the latest escalation of tensions between the two, as Pakistan warned that any suspension of water supplies by India would be viewed as an “act of war”.
Both Pakistan and India saw protesters turn out on the streets, calling on their respective governments to go further.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting of the National Security Committee to respond to India’s measures.
He warned that any attempt to disrupt the Indus Waters Treaty would be met with “full force” from Pakistan.
The landmark treaty has so far survived two wars between the countries, in 1965 and 1971, as well as a major border skirmish in 1999.
It allows for a water-sharing system that is a lifeline for both countries – in particular for Pakistan’s agriculture.
‘Ends of the Earth’
It comes after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to pursue those responsible for the attack “to the ends of the Earth”.
Speaking on Thursday in the eastern state of Bihar, he said: “I say to the whole world, India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers.
“We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth.”
Police in Indian Kashmir published notices on Thursday naming three suspected militants it claimed were “involved in” the attack.
Two of the three suspects were Pakistani nationals, according to the notice.
A contested Kashmir
India and Pakistan each administer a part of Kashmir, but both claim the territory in its entirety.
The region has a long, volatile and complex history.
Recent years have seen India claim that violence in the area has calmed, despite a bloody rebellion against New Delhi raging for decades.
India claims the militancy in Kashmir is Pakistan-backed terrorism.
Pakistan denies this. In a statement on Thursday, the country said it supported the self-determination of the Kashmiri people.
Many Muslim Kashmiris, in a Muslim-majority territory, consider the militants part of a home-grown struggle for freedom.
Diplomatic relations between the two were already weak before the latest escalation, as Pakistan had expelled India’s envoy after India revoked the semi-autonomous status of Kashmir in 2019.
This deepened tensions in the region but things have largely remained stable after the two countries renewed a previous ceasefire agreement in 2021.
