The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has ruled out the possibility of an El Niño event during this year’s southwest monsoon season. El Niño, characterized by the warming of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, is often linked to diminished monsoon rainfall in India.
“Based on climate forecasts, including international assessments, we can rule out El Niño for this monsoon. We are most likely to experience neutral El Niño conditions,” stated M. Mohapatra, Director-General of IMD, during a briefing on Monday.
In 2023, an El Niño year, the monsoon season recorded a 6% rainfall deficit. However, last year, when neutral conditions prevailed, the country experienced an 8% surplus in monsoon rainfall.
El Niño typically causes a temperature rise of 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius in the central Pacific, whereas neutral conditions indicate the absence of such warming. However, there have been instances when neutral conditions still resulted in below-normal rainfall in India. The IMD releases its first annual monsoon forecast in April, followed by periodic updates.
“We will have to wait for the April forecast to gain clarity on monsoon rainfall this year,” Mohapatra added. “Regional climatic factors and conditions in surrounding oceans, particularly the Indian Ocean, also need to be considered in our forecasts.”
Ahead of the monsoon, India is expected to experience “above-normal” temperatures during the summer months. Typically, between April and June, the country records four to seven heatwave days, defined as temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius or a rise of more than five degrees above normal for a region. “Parts of eastern India could potentially witness up to 10 heatwave days this year,” Mohapatra cautioned.
The IMD, in its statement, projected an increased number of heatwave days across most parts of northern and eastern peninsular India, central India, eastern India, and the plains of northwest India during the April-May-June (AMJ) hot-weather season. Additionally, for April 2025, the agency anticipates an above-normal frequency of heatwave days over most parts of eastern and central India, adjoining the peninsular region.
In March, several regions across central and southern India experienced above-normal temperatures. One of the contributing factors to this trend, Mohapatra noted, is climate change driven by global warming.
