Recognition for Naveen, Silence for Hareen—UNP Fault Lines Deepen
Compensation Confusion Triggers Alarm Bells
Ranil Pushed Further into Political Isolation
Disaster Fallout: Who Takes Responsibility—Met Dept. or Crisis Managers?
Anura–Georgieva no Discussion
It has now been two weeks since the greatest natural disaster in Sri Lanka’s history occurred. The government has taken steps to reopen many highways that were blocked by destruction, and large numbers of displaced people who had been staying in camps have returned to their homes, cleaned them, and resumed normal life.
However, the most serious challenge the government now faces is the reconstruction of the infrastructure that was destroyed across the country. Despite being in the midst of an economic crisis, the government has been compelled to allocate an unprecedented sum of money—far more than any government in history has ever set aside for such purposes. Finding these funds has become essential. The question, however, is whether the government has a clear plan to achieve this.
Last week, through our inside politics column, we made a special revelation, reporting details of discussions that had begun between the government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), focusing on disaster management. We revealed information not published by any other media outlet: that the government had requested an additional 200 million US dollars from the IMF, and had also sought IMF approval to present a supplementary estimate of 500 billion rupees to Parliament.
Furthermore, as of Friday we reported that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva had scheduled a telephone conversation. Accordingly, we stated that a highly decisive discussion between the two was held on Friday.
However, on Saturday, new information we received indicated that the planned discussion between the two did not take place at the last moment, due to advice received from the President’s economic team. Therefore, in beginning this week’s inside politics column, we are prepared to correct the news we reported last week.
A Proposal from the IMF
At present, it appears that government officials and officials of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are continuing to exchange views regarding the procedure for providing this assistance. The main focus has been on securing the additional 200 million US dollars requested by the government. In addition, the government has also submitted a proposal to the IMF to raise the sixth loan installment—originally scheduled to be 333 million US dollars—to 500 million US dollars.
According to the information currently available, Sri Lanka is likely to receive the 200 million US dollars requested for disaster management. However, as we revealed last week, the IMF has not yet granted approval for the government’s proposal to present a supplementary estimate of 500 billion rupees. The IMF’s position is that such a move at this time would negatively affect the country’s economy. Therefore, the IMF has informed the government to delay this allocation decision until January.
Many believe that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake did not participate in the scheduled telephone conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva last Friday because of the disagreement between the two sides regarding the 500-billion-rupee allocation proposal. From the IMF’s side, it is said that according to the agreements already signed between the two parties, such additional spending cannot be allowed. However, from the President’s side, it is understood that a loophole has been identified within the clauses of the agreement that could be used to override the IMF’s argument.
According to the information we have, these clauses allow the government to make decisions on allocating additional funds in the event of an emergency disaster. Thus, the government is expected to use this provision to proceed with the allocation.
Nevertheless, the IMF has notified the government that if such changes are made to the clauses of the agreement, the sixth loan installment of 333 million US dollars—scheduled to be released to Sri Lanka on the 15th—cannot be disbursed on that date. The IMF has further informed the government that more discussions are required, and as a result, the release of this loan installment may be postponed until February.
Contradictions in the Compensation Story
Although the IMF opposed the government’s plan to introduce a supplementary estimate of 500 billion rupees, it nevertheless presented several other special proposals to the government to aid recovery from the disaster. The IMF advised the government not to act hastily, but instead to first conduct a proper assessment of the disaster, determining how much money would be required for compensation and for rebuilding destroyed infrastructure. They suggested that this work be carried out by January, after which the report could be presented internationally, enabling the IMF to organize a global aid conference. While this was an excellent proposal, the government’s urgency seems to be causing this golden opportunity to slip away.
19th Will Be Decisive
Meanwhile, in political circles, another story is spreading: that the President is preparing to summon Parliament suddenly on the 19th. Reports say he intends to present the 500 billion rupee supplementary estimate to Parliament that day and have it approved. However, no official announcement has yet been made.
At the same time, the compensation payments promised by the President to disaster victims are drawing criticism on social media. Immediately after the disaster, the President told Parliament that if both a house and land were destroyed by floods, compensation of 10 million rupees would be given; if only the house was destroyed, 5 million rupees would be given; and if only part of the house, such as a roof, was damaged, 1 million rupees would be provided. At that time, the public responded with great approval.
However, later at a District Development Committee meeting, the President expressed a contradictory view. He stated that certain conditions would need to be met to receive compensation, and that payments would be made in installments. Based on this statement, strong criticism has now arisen across social media.
Why then did the President announce such large compensation payments in Parliament at the very outset of the disaster? Many suspect that because the government had already received early warnings about the disaster but failed to act promptly, it faced public dissatisfaction. Reports suggest that the JVP headquarters had received information about this, and that the President may have been pressured by the JVP to announce compensation in order to deflect political accusations. Whether the President made the announcement under such influence remains a matter of doubt for many.
By first announcing generous compensation and then later changing it to conditional, installment-based payments, the government risks creating an even greater crisis within society than the disaster itself. As a result, the compensation payments the government claims it will provide now carry the risk of backfiring against the government itself.
A File is Being Prepared
At present, the most serious accusation facing the government from the opposition and within the country is that, despite receiving prior warnings about the disaster, it failed to respond properly, leading to massive loss of life and property. The opposition claims that if the government had taken appropriate action when the initial reports were received, property damage might still have occurred, but the loss of life could have been prevented.
This accusation intensified last weekend when, unexpectedly, the well-known Indian Newspaper the Indian Express published a special revelation. It reported that the Indian Meteorological Department had issued four separate warnings to Sri Lanka, indicating the possibility of such a disaster and predicting heavy rainfall. Following this, the opposition’s criticism grew stronger, and some government leaders also responded. Certain officials challenged the opposition, saying that the Meteorological Department or other responsible agencies had not issued any official notice of a cyclone, and demanded that the opposition produce evidence if such notices existed.
Although the government responded politically , highly reliable information indicates that the President’s side is now preparing a special file containing official documents to counter these accusations. This file reportedly includes all official announcements issued by the Meteorological Department and other relevant institutions, as well as all statements they made to the media regarding the disaster.
It is also reported that, in the days leading up to the disaster—from November 19 to 23—the Meteorological Department and the National Building Research Organization held several special discussions with education authorities. Their focus was on how to conduct the Advanced Level examinations without interruption in the event of heavy rainfall, since the monsoon was becoming active and high rainfall was expected. Furthermore, investigations are underway into exactly when the Meteorological Department officially informed either the President, as Minister of Disaster Management, or the Presidential Secretary about the risk of such a disaster.
Meanwhile, the opposition has compared this situation to the Easter Sunday attacks, arguing that just as responsible officials failed to act despite having prior information then, the government failed to act now despite receiving all relevant warnings about the disaster. The opposition has already announced that it intends to file legal cases against those responsible in the government. However, it has not yet specified which party will actually initiate such legal action.
Instructions by Opposition Legal Expert?
At present, there is considerable turmoil in the political sphere regarding the President’s declaration of a state of emergency. Within 24 hours of the disaster, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa was the first to advise the President to declare a state of emergency under the Disaster Management Act of 2005, in order to manage the crisis. Although the President initially showed some reluctance, as the scale of the disaster became clear, he eventually declared a state of emergency.
The issue now, however, is that the President declared the emergency not under the Disaster Management Act, but under the Public Security Ordinance. This fact came to light following a statement made by Deputy Minister of Public Security Sunil Watagala at a meeting with police chiefs. In the presence of Deputy Minister of Mass Media Kaushalya Ariyaratne, Watagala instructed police chiefs that since the President’s actions were being heavily criticized on social media, they should take steps to arrest individuals under the emergency regulations. Watagala’s statement has since provoked strong opposition and has even attracted international attention.
Recognizing the seriousness of Watagala’s remarks, the President, when addressing Parliament last Friday after the budget was passed, stated that the emergency would not be used to suppress the people or restrict their opinions. Yet, there is some truth in Watagala’s comment: by declaring the emergency under the Public Security Ordinance rather than the Disaster Management Act, the President has created room for such arrests to take place.
This raises the question: when the Disaster Management Act clearly provides for emergency powers, who advised the President to declare the emergency under the Public Security Ordinance instead? Many now suspect—and some political circles are openly discussing—that a legal expert from the opposition may have met the President and advised him to proceed in this way.
Will the Committee Come Through an Act?
The next issue facing the government is related to the “Rebuilding Sri Lanka” committee, appointed to raise funds and manage recovery from the disaster. This committee, appointed by the President, includes leading business figures, several state officials, and some politicians. However, the committee has now run into serious controversy, as the opposition has questioned its legality.
In particular, Harsha de Silva stated in Parliament that since financial authority rests with Parliament, any such committee must receive parliamentary approval. Otherwise, its legality would be in serious doubt. Other opposition members also pointed out that some of the individuals appointed by the President to the committee face serious allegations, with cases currently being heard against them in the Court of Appeal. Thus, by last week, problems surrounding the committee had already begun to emerge.
Following these questions, the government itself sought legal advice on the matter. The guidance they received indicated that without parliamentary approval, a fund to collect money in this manner cannot be maintained. To do so, it must be passed as an Act of Parliament. However, the complication is that the Gazette notification issued by the President establishing the “Rebuilding Sri Lanka” fund already included all these provisions.
Another issue has arisen regarding how the fund’s money can be spent. Under the Economic Transformation Act, passed by Parliament as part of the IMF agreement, the government can only spend up to 13% of its revenue. Since the “Rebuilding Sri Lanka” fund has not been passed as a separate Act, the money received by it also falls under this spending restriction. To spend the funds in full, it would need to be established as a separate fund through an Act of Parliament.
In discussions, government leaders were reminded that the President’s Fund exists in this way—as a separate Act passed by Parliament—allowing it to spend as much money as necessary. The 13% restriction became clear to government leaders only after the Gazette establishing the “Rebuilding Sri Lanka” fund was issued. Therefore, to overcome this limitation, discussions have now begun within the government about passing the “Rebuilding Sri Lanka” fund as a parliamentary Act.
The Task Handed Over to the World Bank
Meanwhile, although the government has appealed to the international community for assistance to help disaster victims, the absence of an accurate damage assessment report remains a serious shortcoming. When calculating the scale of such devastation across the country, it is essential to obtain the support of experts and specialists to ensure accuracy. For this reason, last Monday the government held decisive discussions with a team of World Bank specialists. The precedent for this was the 2004 tsunami, when World Bank experts assisted Sri Lanka in making a highly accurate damage assessment.
During these discussions, World Bank representatives pointed out that the current disaster is even greater than the tsunami, and that at least three months would be required to assess the damage. However, since technology has advanced significantly compared to 2004, they noted that satellite technology could be used to complete the task within about three months. The underlying message was that development work in the affected areas cannot begin until this assessment report is released. Otherwise, another three months would have to be spent waiting.
The Anti-Corruption Drive Continues
At the same time, it is evident that the government has not abandoned one of its main projects—catching thieves. In the wake of the worst natural disaster in the country’s history, many believed that the government’s three flagship projects— “Clean Sri Lanka,” the anti-drug “Nation Together” program, and the anti-corruption drive—had all been swept away by the floods. But this was not the case. Within days of the disaster, the government resumed these operations with renewed focus.
By last week, the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption had summoned several former ministers of the Yahapalana government to record statements. Among those called were Lakshman Kiriella, Thalatha Athukorala, Gayantha Karunathilaka, and Mahinda Amaraweera, which drew public attention and commentary. However, they were not summoned in relation to investigations directly against them, but in connection with another major inquiry.
That inquiry concerns the leasing of the well-known “Sabitha Building” in Rajagiriya to the Ministry of Agriculture during the Yahapalana government, at a massive cost. The Bribery Commission had already announced that it was preparing to investigate this transaction as reported by the inside politics column. Accordingly, statements were recorded from then-President Maithripala Sirisena, then-Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, and then-Minister of Agriculture Duminda Dissanayake.
In addition, the Commission notified Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa to appear last Monday to give a statement. However, since the President had scheduled a Disaster Management Committee meeting on the same day, Sajith requested another date. The Commission then informed him to appear next Monday instead.
While conducting these investigations, the Commission uncovered several significant details. It was revealed that the matter had been discussed at three Cabinet meetings during the Yahapalana government. As a result, the Commission decided to summon all Cabinet ministers who attended those meetings to record statements. Lakshman Kiriella, Thalatha Athukorala, Gayantha Karunathilaka, and Mahinda Amaraweera were summoned last week accordingly.
Although they gave lengthy statements to the Commission, none of them later spoke publicly about what they had said. This silence itself became a notable development.
“Aney Please Epa”
After the disaster, the most popular phrase in both the political sphere and on social media has become “Aney Please Epa” (“Oh please, don’t”). Following the disaster, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, speaking in Parliament, urged the government to immediately provide relief to the people, declare a state of emergency, and convene an international aid conference. He also stated that the opposition was ready to support such measures as much as possible, and if the government failed to act, the opposition itself could intervene to make it happen.
He proved this not only in words but also in deeds, meeting foreign ambassadors and high commissioners to request assistance for Sri Lanka. However, the President responded to Sajith’s speech in Parliament by saying simply: “Aney Please Epa.” This remark quickly became famous across social media and political circles.
Although the President spoke in a dismissive manner to the Opposition Leader in Parliament, Sajith did not abandon his responsibilities. Instead, he visited displaced people in camps, listened to their needs, and drew the government’s attention to them. He even boarded boats during the floods with Marikkar to distribute aid to the people. He continued meeting foreign diplomats to request international support. Last Thursday, Sajith relaunched the “Husma” program, donating a blood filtration machine and a mobile RO plant worth 4.6 million rupees to the Chilaw Hospital, and another set of medical equipment worth 4.6 million rupees to the Marawila Hospital.
Meanwhile, religious leaders, civil society representatives, and professionals are preparing to request the government to establish a National Council, including all parties from both government and opposition, to rebuild the country after the disaster. Several rounds of discussions have already taken place over the past two weeks, and they plan to present the proposal to the Mahanayake Theros and the Cardinal. Their reasoning is twofold: first, the disaster is the largest natural calamity in the country’s history and cannot be addressed by one party or group alone; second, the government appears intent on proceeding without the opposition, which could lead to greater crisis. Therefore, they believe a National Council must be created so that everyone can face this challenge together before the situation worsens.
A Major Revelation Coming
Last week, during discussions with two more ambassadors, Sajith uncovered special information that had not been revealed to anyone else. He is expected to make a major disclosure about this matter in the coming days, either in Parliament or outside it. Reports suggest that Sajith is currently studying this information in detail, and that the revelation will concern an issue affecting hundreds of thousands of people impacted by the disaster.
Mahinda Back to Colombo
For several weeks, there have been no media reports about former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. No photos of him have appeared on social media. The last time he was seen publicly was at Abhayarama Temple in Narahenpita, when he visited for his birthday before November 21. At that time, Mahinda told the media he would attend the rally in Nugegoda on the 21st. But he did not attend. Nor was there any mention of him after the cyclone and the subsequent disaster.
Investigations revealed two special pieces of information about Mahinda. First, a few weeks earlier, while at his Carlton residence, he suffered an accident. He injured his nose in a fall, and doctors performed surgery. Afterward, medical advice was that since it was difficult for him to travel frequently from Carlton to Colombo, he should reside closer to Colombo.
Second, Mahinda is now preparing to move back to Colombo. A close associate of the Rajapaksa family has arranged a house near Colombo for him. Reports say that last week Mahinda came to Colombo and performed a milk-boiling ceremony at the new house to mark his move. However, since his heart still remains at Carlton, he returned to his ancestral home in Tangalle after the ceremony. Even so, it is understood that in the coming days Mahinda intends to return to Colombo permanently and resume political activities with his supporters there.
A Rebellion Again?
These days, the fighter within the UNP has turned out to be none other than Deputy Leader Navin Dissanayake. Although Navin had been relatively quiet in politics for some time, he re-emerged with the rally in Nugegoda on the 21st. UNP leader Ranil instructed that all party seniors must attend, and declared that the UNP and the SLPP should embark on a new political journey together. The only person who publicly opposed this was Navin.
Navin strongly stated within the party that the UNP has no political future with the SLPP. Confirming this stance, he posted a special note on his Twitter account, declaring that he would never engage in politics with the SLPP at any time in the future. He also took a firm position regarding the Nugegoda rally. When Ranil ordered senior members to attend, Navin clearly said that regardless of who participated, he himself would not. He recorded this stance on his Twitter account as well. Accordingly, Navin did not attend the Nugegoda rally. At the subsequent UNP Management Committee meeting, Harin Fernando argued that Navin’s Twitter messages were harmful to the party. Yet, no one else in the party expressed support for Harin’s view.
Thus, having carried the battle within the party, Navin went public last week to bring the fight into the open. He joined a social media interview, where he clearly stated that the UNP has no future political journey with the SLPP. Instead, he said, the UNP camp must be strengthened once again. Seeing Navin’s fighting spirit, many were reminded of his father, Gamini Dissanayake. Gamini was known as someone with the courage to speak directly and openly, and to protest against injustice in public. For example, during J.R. Jayewardene’s government, when JR decided to abolish the civic rights of Sirimavo Bandaranaike, Gamini openly opposed it. In the same way, Navin now appears to be following in his father’s footsteps, becoming someone who expresses his views directly, just as Gamini once did.
Ranil Left Isolated
As Navin Dissanayake openly opposed Ranil’s stance, many who had long been with Ranil in politics are now seen leaving him. For example, during Ranil’s presidency, two of his closest allies were Kanchana Wijesekera and Shehan Semasinghe, both originally from the SLPP. Ranil was so close to Kanchana that his plan was to bring Kanchana into the UNP and eventually hand over the party leadership to him. Yet now, Kanchana has decided to return to politics with the SLPP. Reports say that last week he held a highly secret meeting with SLPP National Organizer Namal Rajapaksa, where they reached several agreements. Accordingly, Kanchana is expected to rejoin his original political home, the SLPP, in the near future. Shehan Semasinghe, another close ally of Ranil, has also publicly resumed politics with the SLPP.
Similarly, Anuradha Jayaratne, who entered Parliament through Ranil’s national list, was seen last week with Namal Rajapaksa in Kandy, visiting flood victims. Jeevan Thondaman, the only MP elected under the elephant symbol, also joined Namal in visiting displaced plantation workers. Rohitha Abeygunawardena, who once journeyed politically with Ranil, had already announced about a month ago that he was rejoining the SLPP. Thus, many who once stood with Ranil are now returning to their former political camps.
Meanwhile, special information has emerged regarding a possible merger between the SJB and the UNP. Senior leaders of the SJB, second-tier leaders, and grassroots members all hold the position that the two parties should unite. Likewise, almost all senior UNP members—except for two or three—also believe that the future political journey must be undertaken together with the SJB. Only two UNP figures oppose this stance. Former Deputy Leader Ravi Karunanayake once described these two individuals as “ghosts” who are destroying both the UNP and Ranil. It is said that the SJB–UNP merger is being obstructed by these two “ghosts.”
According to available information, apart from these two, nearly everyone else in the UNP supports uniting with the SJB. Moreover, the general belief is that regardless of what these two do, the merger of the two parties will inevitably take place. However, if these two continue to obstruct unity, UNP leaders have already discussed several alternative measures. Reports suggest that if they block a formal merger, other options to bring the two parties together are being considered. The UNP is no stranger to rebellions and conspiracies. Since Ranil became the leader in 2004, the party has faced internal uprisings for 32 years. The result was that a party once with over 90 MPs collapsed to the point of not electing even a single MP.
