The world economy is expected to grow at a modest 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, according to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) update by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
While this represents a slight upward revision from the October 2023 forecast, it remains below the historical average of 3.8 percent seen between 2000 and 2019.
Global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China.
Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8 percent in 2024 and to 4.4 percent in 2025, with the 2025 forecast revised down, said the IMF.
The IMF also said that with disinflation and steady growth, the likelihood of a hard landing has receded, and risks to global growth are broadly balanced.
On the upside, faster disinflation could lead to further easing of financial conditions. Stronger structural reform momentum could bolster productivity with positive cross-border spillovers.
On the downside, new commodity price spikes from geopolitical shocks––including continued attacks in the Red Sea––and supply disruptions or more persistent underlying inflation could prolong tight monetary conditions.
Deepening property sector woes in China or, elsewhere, a disruptive turn to tax hikes and spending cuts could also cause growth disappointments.
Source: News First