Upali Jayaweera, a second-tier leader of the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna), rose to prominence in the party’s Central Committee after the assassination of Rohana Wijeweera. Following his arrest by the military, he confessed on March 6, 1990, at the Pallekele Army Camp. His statement spanned about 21 pages, and in one instance, he mentioned:
“On November 13, 1989, while travelling with comrades for a regional meeting, I saw on a TV set in a shop that our leader, comrade Rohana Wijeweera, had been arrested. I was shocked…”
November 13, 1989, was the day the backbone of the JVP was broken. For Upali Jayaweera, seeing his beloved leader captured must have felt like an earthquake shaking the ground beneath him.
Exactly 35 years later, the JVP has created a political earthquake in Sri Lanka—a possibility Upali Jayaweera likely never imagined. But it has happened.
“Who created this earthquake and tsunami?”
The earthquake and tsunami were caused by Ranil Wickremesinghe, Basil Rajapaksa, and the Rajapaksa family.
The seeds of this tsunami were sown during the 2015 Yahapalana government. After Maithripala Sirisena became the common candidate for the UNP, won the presidential election, and forcibly took over the leadership of the SLFP, a chain of events unfolded. If Mahinda had allowed Maithripala to assume SLFP leadership and retired from politics in 2015, this tsunami might have occurred then.
Appointing Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister, Maithripala enabled Ranil to systematically weaken the SLFP, reducing it to a shell of its former self. SLFP supporters, however, viewed Ranil as their greatest adversary and saw Maithripala as a traitor. Recognizing this resentment, Mahinda Rajapaksa organized an opposition force against both Ranil and Maithripala. Anti-Ranil and anti-UNP elements of the SLFP rallied around Mahinda. If Mahinda had refrained from forming the Pohottuwa party and allowed Maithripala to surrender the SLFP to Ranil, the JVP might have taken leadership of the 5.7 million voters who were left adrift in 2015. But Mahinda did not allow this to happen.
Instead, Mahinda became a hero of the anti-Ranil and anti-UNP forces. In the 2019 presidential election, Gotabaya Rajapaksa secured 6.9 million votes because Mahinda and the Rajapaksa family stood up against the political manipulation created by Ranil and Maithripala.
Gotabaya’s presidency in 2019 and Mahinda’s prime ministership in 2020 were largely based on promises to hold the perpetrators of the Central Bank bond scam and the Easter Sunday attacks accountable. However, when Gotabaya took his oath as president at the Ruwanweli Maha Seya, the crowd loudly booed then-Prime Minister Ranil, revealing their deep resentment.
Yet, neither Gotabaya, Mahinda, Basil, nor Namal understood the fury of the 6.9 million who had voted for them. During the 2022 Aragalaya (People’s Struggle), they handed over power to Ranil, ignoring the anger of their voter base. Their focus shifted to undermining Sajith Premadasa’s rising popularity to safeguard the Rajapaksa family and the government.
“What if they had stepped aside and allowed Sajith to lead?”
In that scenario, Sajith would have likely called for a snap general election. The SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) would have secured a majority, making Pohottuwa the main opposition. The JVP would have increased its seats but remained a third force. If the Rajapaksas had fielded a popular Pohottuwa candidate instead of Ranil, the party could have maintained significant influence as the main opposition.
By handing the presidency to Ranil, the Rajapaksas replicated the 2015 Ranil-Maithripala political distortion. The 6.9 million who voted for Gotabaya could not tolerate this, as Ranil had once accused the Rajapaksas of bank robberies and enabling Muslim extremists involved in the Easter attacks. This betrayal led to the alienation of both Ranil and the Rajapaksa family.
In the meantime, the JVP emerged as a significant force, taking advantage of the political vacuum left by the discredited opposition and the public’s disillusionment with Ranil’s economic policies. Ranil, in collaboration with media networks, propagated the narrative that he and Sajith might contest the 2024 presidential election together, confusing the electorate further.
Ranil went on giving bar licenses to the members of the North and T.N.A. they lost together.
Even though Basil tried to get rid of the government from Ranil, the Podujana Peramuna MPs were enslaved by Ranil’s privileges. Finally, Basil suggested to Ranil that Parliament should be dissolved. If Ranil had dissolved the parliament at that time, the Samagi People’s Force would have won. JVP will be the opposition. Podujana Peramuna also would have secured lot of power. Ranil did not dissolve the parliament because he dreamed of becoming president and his hatred of Sajith.
After this year’s presidential election, a large number of MPs went home without coming forward to compete in the election, not because Ranil and Basil had destroyed the Podujana Peramuna and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, but because they were left with no option other than that, as the anti-UNP and Samagi Jana Balawegaya politics were given to JVP.
Ranil along with Maithri destroyed the SLFP in 2015. 2020 destroyed the U.N.P. 2022 destroyed Podujana Peramuna with the Rajapaksa family. He then set out to destroy the united people’s force. However, that didn’t work.
JVP or National People’s Force has taken 6,863,186 in this year’s general election. In the 2020 general election, the Podujana Peramuna got 6,853,690 votes. This is the public tsunami of 2019 and 2020. No difference. 2019 and 2020 Ranil-Maitree mutation created the Gota Tsunami. 2024 Ranil – Rajapakse mutation has created the Anura Tsunami
Ultimately, by undermining Sajith, dismantling the Pohottuwa, and handing over the remnants of opposition politics to the JVP, the Rajapaksa family’s short-sighted decision-making enabled this political tsunami.
