Gotabaya Rajapaksa became President after Donald Trump became President of the United States.
Donald Trump became President for the second time after Anura Kumara Dissanayake became President.
Donald Trump is a very unfortunate leader. During his first term in office he could not demonstrate any major achievements. The reason was the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. He failed to control the pandemic effectively, and during that period the United States fell into an economic crisis. In 2021 Trump suffered a defeat that even he himself had not expected, because Americans, exhausted by the pandemic, came to view him as an unsuccessful leader.
Now, in his second term, Trump has become entangled in a war with Iran, pushing not only the American economy but also the global economy toward crisis. Just as world leaders were shaken by the coronavirus pandemic, they are now alarmed by Trump’s war with Iran. The reason is the fear that the economic fallout of such a war could damage their own countries’ economies and lead to their defeat in the next elections. Despite Trump’s bravado, there is little doubt that he too now feels that fear.
In Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who became President with the highest vote share in the country’s history — 69 per cent — was eventually forced to flee not only the presidency but also the country because of the coronavirus crisis. Due to the pandemic, Sri Lanka lost foreign tourists. The inflow of dollars from migrant workers declined. Export earnings also fell. As a result, Sri Lanka lacked the foreign reserves needed to repay its annual debt instalments. There were no dollars to import fuel or gas. Gotabaya had to declare Sri Lanka bankrupt. When he left office, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, which had secured 69 per cent of the vote, had fallen to less than three per cent in popularity.
Gotabaya became President in 2019 on a massive wave of support. That wave swept aside the two main political parties in Sri Lanka — the United National Party and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. After his victory, many believed the Rajapaksa family would rule the country for another 25 years. Although 69 per cent of the people voted for him, they did not realize that Gotabaya lacked experience in governing a country.
If the coronavirus pandemic had not occurred, Gotabaya might still be President today. Under normal circumstances, he would not have had to do anything extraordinary to keep the system running. If the usual inflows of dollars from tourism, migrant workers, and exports had continued, managing the country would not have been particularly difficult. But fate intervened with the pandemic. The country entered an abnormal situation. Gotabaya lacked the experience needed to govern under such extraordinary conditions. Everything went wrong, and in the end the country collapsed before he even realized it.
Anura too became President in a similar way to Gotabaya. Gotabaya’s wave of support arose after the 2019 Easter Sunday bombings in Sri Lanka. Anura’s wave came from the mass protest movement known as the ‘Aragalaya’ protest movement in Sri Lanka. Gotabaya became President by dissolving the influence of the UNP and SLFP, the traditional main parties. Anura became President by dissolving the most powerful political force at the time — the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna and its politicians. Gotabaya weakened the traditional parties that were thought to be impossible to weaken; Anura dismantled the Rajapaksas, who were also believed to be impossible to defeat.
After becoming President at the end of 2019, Gotabaya governed the country through the pandemic until 2021, a period of roughly two years. In the first year of the pandemic, he managed the country without major opposition by providing free vaccines and giving Rs 5,000 payments to poor families. The first major problem he faced was the fuel crisis. Weekly cabinet discussions concluded that fuel could not be distributed without shortages unless prices were increased. There were proposals to introduce a rationing system.
At the time the petroleum minister was Udaya Gammanpila. He travelled across the world seeking oil on credit. Despite knowing that a fuel crisis was approaching, Gotabaya did not take decisive action. Either fuel prices should have been increased, or fuel should have been rationed. Out of fear, he did neither. Soon, fuel queues began to appear, followed later by queues for cooking gas.
It has now been about one year and six months since Anura Kumara Dissanayake became President. Like Gotabaya, Anura too is a leader without prior experience in governing the state, though the public did not take that into account. Like Gotabaya, he managed to keep the country running in the first year under normal conditions. Now, however, another abnormal situation has arisen — the war involving Iran. The first issue Anura now has to confront is again a fuel problem.
Sri Lanka’s economy today is not what it was when Gotabaya took office in 2019. When Gotabaya fled in 2022, the country had already gone bankrupt. Officials from the International Monetary Fund repeatedly warn during their visits that Sri Lanka’s economy could collapse again if there is an external shock.
If the war with Iran drags on, Anura could face the same crisis that Gotabaya faced. A prolonged war would directly affect oil and gas supplies, leading to rising prices. It could also threaten the jobs of migrant workers in the Middle East. Tourism would also suffer if the war continues.
“Will Anura face the same fate as Gotabaya?”
That is difficult to say. If the war with Iran ends midway, Anura may not face an immediate problem. But the global economic crisis created by the war will make his second and third years in office far more difficult than the first.
Anura has been able to fill the treasury largely through the taxes introduced earlier by Ranil Wickremesinghe, keeping some funds in reserve to spend closer to elections. However, whether the war continues or ends, the economic fallout will still follow. For a bankrupt country like Sri Lanka, the money saved in the treasury will not be sufficient to withstand another crisis.
However, even if crises arise, it is unlikely that Anura would flee the country as Gotabaya did. The reason is that unlike Gotabaya, Anura is a seasoned politician. If he finds the situation impossible to manage, he may call an early election. Otherwise, he may struggle through until the end of his term.
Therefore, the task of the opposition is not merely to hold press conferences in Colombo claiming they are ready to take over the country, but to prepare the people to win the next election.
