This time, the number of registered voters is 17.1 million. If 80% of them vote (14 million), a candidate would need to secure 7 million votes to win the presidency.
In the 2019 presidential election, the National People’s Power (NPP) received 418,553 votes (3.16%), and in the parliamentary election, they secured 445,950 votes (3.84%). The maximum number of votes they have garnered in the last two elections is 450,000.
The NPP needs an additional 6.55 million votes to win. This means they need to secure 318,000 votes from each of the 22 electoral districts. Two districts have less than 320,000 registered voters (Vanni with 306,000 and Trincomalee with 314,000). Since the majority of voters in these two districts are Tamil, the chances of NPP gaining votes there are very slim.
In Jaffna, Batticaloa, and Digamadulla districts, where the majority are Tamil and Muslim, the NPP’s vote count is also very limited.
Even if the NPP manages to secure 100,000 votes from the five districts of Jaffna, Vanni, Trincomalee, Digamadulla, and Batticaloa, they would still need more than 400,000 votes from each of the remaining 17 districts.
In Polonnaruwa, it is impossible for the NPP to get 400,000 out of 352,000 registered votes. The registered voter count in Matale and Monaragala districts is less than 430,000 (Monaragala with 400,000 and Matale with 430,000). Is it possible for the NPP to get 400,000 votes from these districts? In the remaining 14 districts, they would need to secure 500,000 votes from each.
Is it possible for the NPP to get 500,000 votes from Hambantota, which has 523,000 registered voters?
The registered voter count in Kegalle (710,000), Nuwara Eliya (603,000), Puttalam (661,000), Matara (688,000), Badulla (705,000), and Anuradhapura (743,000) districts is less than 750,000. Securing 500,000 votes in any of these districts would mean achieving 75% of the votes.
In Ratnapura (925,000) and Galle (900,000) districts, they would need to get 70% of the registered votes.
The only districts where a significant number of votes can be expected are Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Kandy, and Kurunegala. Even there, the votes need to be between 700,000 and 800,000.
Therefore, it is impossible for the National People’s Power (NPP), also known as the JVP, to win either the presidential or parliamentary elections. If the presidential election is held first, the maximum number of votes they can get is 2.5 million.
After losing the presidential election, the NPP is likely to get less than 2 million votes in the parliamentary election. Thus, it would be more advantageous for them to hold the parliamentary election first, where they could secure 25 to 30 seats.
The beginning of the collapse of the NPP, also known as the JVP, will be marked by the shattering of all dreams. The division is certain. NPP and JVP, even the coalition, will struggle to gain ground in the North and South.
