‘This is the first election in Sri Lanka one cannot predict a winner…’
This story is told by an expert who conducts election polls in Sri Lanka. The story is right. Since 1947, every election in Sri Lanka has had a ruling party and an opposition party. Either the ruling party wins. Otherwise, the opposition will win.
In this election, there is no government. An opposition is fighting for the 69 lakh votes of the government. If there was a similar election to this, it could be the 1988 presidential election. But in 1988 there was a ruling party. The ruling party was very weak. The opposition was divided between SLFP and JVP. JVP did not field a candidate for the 1988 presidential election. What they did was split the votes of the opposition’s main candidate Mrs. Bandaranaike.
The ruling party was represented by the UNP. Their candidate was Ranasinghe Premadasa. He won the presidential election, which was predicted, could not be won with minority votes. At that time, the alliance led by JVP and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party had a big wave. JR Jayawardena’s biography says that the businessmen who formed UNP were not sure of Premadasa winning and instead of giving money to Premadasa, they gave money to the lady saying that she would win. But Premadasa won. It is the plantation, North-Eastern minority votes. Thondaman, Eastern province Ashrof and North E.P.R.L.F were the kings stood with Premadasa. The lady swam only in the Sinhala Buddhist wave.
Below is the district where the lady won.
1. Gampaha
2.Kalutara
3. Galle
4. Matara
5. Anuradapura
6. Jaffna
Except for Jaffna, all these districts are the districts where the Sinhala Buddhist people live. The lady wins all this. Premadasa won most of the districts where minority people live such as Colombo, Kandy, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota, Jaffna, Vanni, Digamadulla, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Kegalle. In Sinhala, Buddhist Majority areas Premadasa won in small numbers.
Premadasa wons Colombo by 22,000 votes.
Premadasa won Hambantota with 1,855 votes.
Premadasa won Kurunegala with 16,439.
Premadasa won Polonnaruwa with 6,219 votes.
But in Plantation, North and East districts Premadasa won with a huge number of votes. Due to this, the main Sinhala Buddhist districts he was defeated and Premadasa took 50%.
‘Is the same going to happen this time…?’
I don’t know what to say. But when we look at the way the elections are conducted in the districts, it seems that the competition between Premadasa and Mathiniya is now between Sajith and Anura. On that day in 1988, O.C Abeygunasekara and JVP broke the votes of Mrs. Bandaranayake. The UNP members were also scared by the JVP poll boycott. Because of this, Premadasa was also at a disadvantage.
Similar to JVP and OC back then, when Ranil breaks Sajith’s votes, and pohottuwa votes that will go to JVP are also broken. Namal and Dilit will also break the pohottuwa vote that could go to JVP.
When looking at the districts, the fight of the lady against Premadasa in 1988 is very similar to the fight of JVP against Sajith today.
As was in 1988, Sajith has more tendency to win in Colombo. Anura is likely to be number two. Ranil is likely to be three. It is impossible to say whether Namal will be the three.
Gampaha in 1988 Mrs B won but Sajith has more chances to win this time. In 1988 the Catholic Church openly supported Mrs.B. This time the Catholic support is more active. In the 2015 presidential election, Basil campaigned for Gampaha and Maitri won Gampaha. Because of this, it is more likely that Sajith will win Gampaha by a small margin. Ranil and Namal will fight for two and three.
Anura is more likely to win Kalutara. In 1988, Mrs B won Kalutara. This time Sajith will be no two.
There is a high chance of Anura winning Matara. Matara is J.V.P.’s budding heart. Sajith is more likely to be no two.
As in 1988 Sajith will win like Premadasa won Kandy. Chances are high that no two will be Anura.
Even if Galle won by Mrs B in 1988, this time Sajith and Anura will fight side by side in Galle. The win is either Sajith’s. Or Anura’s.
Even if Hambantota won by Premadasa in 1988, there is more chance of Anura winning this time. Hambantota is the heart of JVP and Pohottuwa.
Kurunegala 1988 Premadasa was the winner, Sajith is more likely to win this time. Sajith started the election battle from Kurunegala because Kurunegala is ahead of them. Anura is likely to be two.
Anura will win this time like Mrs B as was in 1988 Anuradhapura. Sajith is more likely to be the second.
Even if Premadasa won Polonnaruwa in 1988, Anura is more likely to win this time. If Sajith manages to get Maithri’s votes and Roshan Ranasinghe’s votes for Samagi Jana Balavega, Sajith can fight side by side with Anura.
Even if Monaragala won by Premadasa in 1988, Anura is more likely to win this time. The reason was Monaragala is Pohottuwa and JVP strongholds after Premadasa. Sajith may be the number two.
Like in 1988, Sajith will win Badulla. As Ranil has voted in the plantation, there will be a two-way battle between Ranil and Anura.
As in 1988, Sajith will win Nuwara Eliya. There will be a fight between Ranil and Anura for second place.
Like in 1988, Sajith will win Kegalle. It is possible to think that Anura will be the no-two.
Like in 1988, Sajith will win in Matale. It is possible to think that Anura will be the two.
Premadasa won Ratnapura in 1988 this time it will be a battle between Anura and Sajith for the win in Ratnapura It is uncertain who will win.
Just like Premadasa wonin 1988, Sajith will win Puttalam. Second place, the fight will be between Ranil and Anura because of the Muslim community in Puttalam.
Like Premadasa in 1988, Sajith will win Batticaloa. There will be a fight between Ranil and Anura for two.
Like Premadasa in 1988, Sajith wins Ampara. There will be a fight between Ranil and Anura for two.
Like Premadasa in 1988, Sajith wins Trincomalee. There will be a fight between Ranil and Anura for two.
Like Premadasa in 1988, Vanni will be won by Sajith. Two will be Ranil.
In 1988, Mrs B. won Jaffna, but Sajith won Jaffna this time. Two will be Ranil.
Thus, Sajith has a high chance of winning 15 districts. Anura can be expected to win 5 districts. Ratnapura and Polonnaruwa will have a close competition. Even if it is assumed that Anura will win both those districts, Anura will win 7 districts.
‘That means Sajith has more advantage to win, doesn’t it…?’
Sajith’s biggest advantage is that Sajith started with 55 lakhs. Sajith got these 55 lakhs from the presidential election. Hakeem, Rishad, Mano, Digambaram along with Sajith joined Sajith to get that 55 lakhs. Tamil National Alliance, the missing component which has not yet said who it will support. Ranil did not support Sajith in the 2019 presidential election. Ranil’s number of votes is 5 or 6 lakhs, but TNA’s votes are 4 lakhs, and Sajith’s is 45 lakhs.
‘Then Ranil is breaking Sajith’s minority votes…?’
As much as Ranil break Sajith’s minority votes, the pohottuwa who think that Anura will get the votes are also broken. U.N.P. Votes and minority votes are broken more quickly than Anurata’s Pohottu votes are broken.
On the other hand, it can be analyzed from the 2020 general election results that Ranil can break Sajith’s minority votes. By the time of the 2020 general election, the UNP is a huge party. Samagi Jana Balawega is a newly formed small party. During the election campaign, the media gave number one to Pohottuwa and number two to U.N.P. The Samagi Jana Balawega got a place after the JVP.
Anura got 4 lakh votes in 2019 presidential election and 2020 general election. Anura needs to get 41 lakh more votes. Those 41 lakh votes should be taken from the 69 lakh votes obtained by Gota in 2019. In this 69 lakhs, there are the votes of the Pohottuwa MPs who went with Ranil, the Mahindaist Pohottu votes that Namal won, the votes of Wimall, Udayala, and the votes of Dallas-Dayasirila. Looking at it like that, 69 will be divided into five parties. Dallas, Dayasirila, Chandimal, Dilan, Shan Wijayalalla, Godahewa and many others support Sajith. To the extent of breaking the votes,of Sajith by Ranil and UNP Sajith will get a small vote through Dallas and Dayasiri.
‘And if the Pohottu vote is divided, how can Anura win those districts alone…?’
Therein lays the problem. Namal entered the fray at the last moment. If Namal continues on the Mahinda frenzy, there is a possibility that he will lose to Ranil. Then he breaks the potottuwa vote going to Anura.
Apart from Anura’s 4 lakhs in this presidential election, Anura, Ranil and Dilith have two cash current accounts. Namal has a vote base of Mahinda. Sajith has a fix of 45 out of 55 lakh votes. Sajith is currently winning. It is true no matter what polls are done on social media.
