CorruptionClaims Spark Political Firestorm
Women’s Day Showdown: SJB and Government
Provincial Council Elections Loom Amid Rising Political Tensions
Government Finds Intellectual Shield in Verité Research Backing
SJB–UNP Talks Raise Eyebrows
Easter Attack Probe: Sallay Arrest Sparks Political Debate
Allegations Upon Allegations
One and a half years after coming to power, the government is now facing a wave of serious corruption allegations from the opposition. Claims that 323 containers were released from the port without any inspection, and that eight substandard coal shipments were imported causing a loss of Rs. 7,700 million, have placed the administration under significant pressure.
Against this backdrop, the government has decided not to confine itself to verbal responses but to move toward a political counteraction. Accordingly, plans are underway to launch a major political mobilisation in Colombo on March 8 – International Women’s Day.
Has Popularity Declined?
The opposition claims that the government’s popularity has dropped to 20 percent, and in some instances even to 15 percent or back to its previous 3 percent level. However, neither the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) nor the National People’s Power (NPP) has demonstrated a large-scale show of strength during the past one and a half years.
Is this because they are unable to do so? Or is it a deliberate strategy to downplay their popularity? Political observers remain divided.
“Women Unite as One”
As in the previous presidential election, women played a decisive role in the victories of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the National People’s Power (NPP) at the general election as well. In addition to political rallies held in every district, the JVP and the NPP organized several large-scale gatherings attended exclusively by women under the theme “Women Unite as One.” At the time, thousands of women were seen participating in these rallies.
Accordingly, the JVP is currently making rapid organizational preparations to hold another massive women’s rally in Colombo. This information has not yet been reported in any media outlet, and it is through this “Inside Politics” column that it is being revealed to the country for the first time.
Women to Colombo
During discussions held over the past several weeks, JVP General Secretary Tilvin Silva has informed party MPs and electorate organizers that the party has decided to bring approximately 30,000 women to Colombo. He has instructed the party machinery across all districts accordingly.
A key question raised in these discussions was whether the NPP government would hold an official state event for International Women’s Day, or whether the JVP would organize a separate, large-scale women’s rally under its own leadership in addition to the official function. Tilvin Silva reportedly informed the party that the official Women’s Day commemoration should be held on a smaller scale under government involvement, while a massive women’s convention in Colombo should be organized under the leadership of the JVP and the NPP to demonstrate the party’s strength to the country.
Another question was whether the convention should be held under the JVP’s leadership or under the NPP banner. Although no official clarification has been issued, information available to us suggests that the rally is clearly intended as the first step toward re-strengthening the JVP. While it may be held under the NPP banner, the Pelawatte party headquarters has reportedly decided that the event must prominently project the JVP’s identity.
Provincial Councils on the Horizon
Another important development relates to internal party discussions following Tilvin Silva’s first official visit to India. After briefing the party on his visit, he reportedly stated that the party must immediately prepare to face Provincial Council elections. Although no specific dates were mentioned, he made it clear that the government has already decided to hold the elections.
This has led many to question whether the March 8 women’s rally in Colombo is intended as the first step toward launching the Provincial Council election campaign.
Discussions regarding Provincial Council elections have reportedly taken place not only in Pelawatte but also in India. From the day it assumed power, the government had reportedly assured several parties, including India, that it would definitely hold the long-delayed Provincial Council elections.
Although not expected immediately, it appears likely that the elections could be held by the end of this year or within the first few months of next year. This gives the government roughly six to seven months to rebuild political momentum and restore any lost popularity. Where weaknesses are identified, the party has reportedly decided to act swiftly to rectify them and fulfill promises made to the public.
This renewed urgency appears to stem from growing sentiment that the government’s popularity has fallen to around 20–30 percent. While such claims did not significantly concern the leadership after the last local government elections, recent feedback from across the country suggests that concerns over declining popularity are now being felt more seriously. The March 8 rally is seen as a response to that perception.
Simultaneously, the government has decided to intensify efforts to apprehend individuals accused of corruption, as previously promised. Ultimately, these moves appear aimed at paving the way for the Provincial Council elections.
The SJB’s Move
Before the JVP finalized its March 8 rally, this column previously hinted that Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa was planning a major political event. He too is reportedly organizing a large Women’s Day rally in Colombo, planned at Nelum Pokuna Theatre to showcase the strength of women within the opposition.
The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has reportedly decided to bring over 10,000 women from each electorate to Colombo. As such, the country’s two main political forces — the JVP and the SJB — appear set to demonstrate their respective strengths in Colombo on International Women’s Day. No other opposition party appears capable of organizing an event of similar scale. There is even speculation that the government and the main opposition could find themselves face-to-face in Colombo on that day.
Verité Research and the Political Calculus
A major factor influencing recent decisions appears to be the latest survey released by Verité Research, headed by Nishan de Mel. The survey claims that 65 percent of respondents approve of the government’s program.
In the past, Verité Research has published favorable survey findings during the administrations of Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe. Despite earlier positive assessments, both administrations eventually faced serious political setbacks.
Nevertheless, the latest Verité survey appears to have provided the government with renewed confidence — even “oxygen” — to proceed with Provincial Council elections.
Meanwhile, tensions have reportedly risen within the SJB regarding Nishan de Mel, particularly after some party members criticized his role and questioned his neutrality.
Easter Attacks and Political Timing
The NPP government had pledged to bring those responsible for the 2019 Easter attacks to justice. As the seventh anniversary approaches on April 21, pressure has mounted on the government to show concrete progress.
In this context, the recent arrest of former State Intelligence Chief Major General Suresh Sallay by the Criminal Investigation Department has raised questions about whether this too forms part of a broader six-month political strategy leading up to elections.
Rajapaksa Investigations Abroad
Another significant development reportedly took place in the United States involving Shamindra Rajapaksa, son of former Speaker Chamal Rajapaksa. A Sri Lankan court has issued a warrant related to corruption allegations.
It is reported that U.S. investigators located his residence in Los Angeles and personally served the Sri Lankan court warrant on him. Following this, members of the Rajapaksa family have reportedly engaged senior legal counsel to challenge potential international action, including the possibility of an Interpol Red Notice.
These efforts are widely seen as part of the government’s broader anti-corruption drive, particularly targeting Rajapaksa family members residing abroad.
SJB–UNP Talks: Stalled?
While the government appears to be moving with strategic clarity, questions remain about the status of talks between the SJB and the United National Party (UNP).
Although many leaders and supporters from both sides favor unity, internal divisions reportedly persist. There are also suggestions that certain figures are pushing for a quick agreement in order to gain political advantage in legal matters concerning Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Despite broad awareness within the SJB of these political undercurrents, a few senior figures reportedly remain eager to finalize discussions swiftly.
Political Timing and Calculations
Generally, when two political parties come together to form a new party or a new political alliance, it does not happen during a politically inactive or uneventful period when no major election is in sight. Major parties take such a significant decision as a final strategic move aimed at a key upcoming election. This is a common political reality for both the SJB and the UNP. If the SJB and the UNP were to agree to unite at this moment formally, it would become just another headline rather than a move that brings real political advantage. It would not help mobilize supporters of either party. While the public might discuss it for a few days, by the time a national election is held several years later, the topic of the two parties uniting would likely have faded.
Accordingly, SJB leader Sajith and other MPs have maintained that these discussions should proceed step by step according to a long-term plan, and that a formal agreement on unity should be reached only at a decisive political moment.However, certain factions within the UNP appear eager to expedite the unification in order to secure some advantage for Ranil’s political interests. Although Ranil has publicly stated on various occasions that he has retired from politics, it is evident that his sole intention remains to seize any political opportunity to undermine Sajith and claim the advantage for himself.
Ranil’s blame
An incident inside the UNP last week further confirmed this. During a discussion, Ranil reportedly stated openly that Sajith has no real interest in uniting the two parties. He is said to have blamed even the UNP leaders who engaged in talks with Sajith, claiming that Sajith is deliberately dragging the process. This clearly reinforces earlier reports that Ranil’s statements about retiring from politics are not genuine. Another incident last week further substantiated this narrative. One of the two individuals within the UNP—referred to critically by Ravi as “ghosts”—met with an SJB MP and presented a specific proposal. According to reports, he suggested that the talks to unite the two parties should be concluded quickly. He claimed that if they failed to finalize the process soon, both sides would suffer politically.
Looming Economic crisis
He further argued that, based on information they had received, the country might face another major economic crisis within the next few years. If such a crisis forced them to take over the government, he proposed that the presidency at that stage should go to Ranil, and that Sajith could be given the presidential candidacy in 2029. These developments appear to confirm earlier revelations that Ranil has no genuine intention of withdrawing from politics.
A key concern for the UNP leadership is that Sajith has begun discussions not with them directly, but with the remaining second-tier young UNP leaders who still have public acceptance and grassroots support. Through this move, Sajith has signalled the possibility of unification and has managed to bring members of both parties toward a common position. At this stage, anyone attempting to disrupt this unity risks being branded a traitor and facing backlash from party supporters. Although a few SJB MPs aligned with Ranil’s agenda are reportedly pressuring Sajith to accelerate the unification process, Sajith has decided to proceed not according to anyone’s hidden agenda, but in line with the interests of party members and the country.
A Discussion About Harsha
Last week, this column explicitly named an SJB MP alleged to be working according to Ranil’s agenda from within the party—Harsha de Silva. It was reported that Harsha had, on several occasions, acted in ways that placed the SJB and its leadership in difficulty.
Following the recent presidential election defeat, it was also revealed that Harsha had initiated a conspiracy to remove Sajith from the SJB leadership. The names of two or three individuals who supported this effort were disclosed for the first time. Their objective, reportedly, was to sabotage the unification process between the SJB and the UNP and to advance Ranil’s agenda within the SJB.
For the first time, a grassroots SJB leader—Kings Nelson of Polonnaruwa—publicly launched a strong criticism against Harsha. While other MPs remained silent regarding Harsha’s actions, Kings Nelson openly opposed him. It is worth noting his courage in doing so. Perhaps, it is suggested, he inherited this fighting spirit against injustice from his father, H.G.P. Nelson.
Following this public criticism and the exposure of these developments, it is understood that other SJB MPs and organizers have begun to recognize what is described as Harsha’s true position. Since these revelations, those within the SJB allegedly aligned with the UNP’s Sirikotha agenda appear to have fallen silent.
Anura Left Stunned
Last week, we revealed several details about the President’s visit to New Delhi that had not been reported by any media outlet. This week, even more noteworthy information about the visit has emerged.
The first incident occurred after the SriLankan Airlines aircraft carrying the President landed at the New Delhi airport. Traditionally, when a foreign head of state arrives in New Delhi, they disembark, walk along the red carpet, and are formally received by Indian representatives. However, on this occasion, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arranged something unprecedented.
A special motorcade, complete with security vehicles, was driven directly to the aircraft door to escort the President. A unique security arrangement had also been organized inside the airport specifically for him. The same level of protocol was followed when the President departed India. Notably, no previous Sri Lankan head of state had received such treatment from India.
The significance of this became even clearer during the return flight to Sri Lanka. Shortly after takeoff, the chief pilot handed over control to the co-pilot and came out of the cockpit to speak with the President. He expressed pride that such exceptional treatment had been extended to a Sri Lankan President and to a SriLankan Airlines flight—something he said he had never witnessed before, despite having flown six previous Presidents to India. The President reportedly accepted the congratulations with a modest smile.
Modi’s Special Request
Beyond what was publicly visible, several important discussions took place behind closed doors. One key meeting involved the President, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva.
During the discussion, Modi made an unusual and significant appeal to Georgieva on Sri Lanka’s behalf. He reportedly stated that he had never before made such a request, but that the IMF should assist Sri Lanka in overcoming its economic crisis. For a leader of Modi’s stature to make such an intervention was seen as a strong assurance of India’s support for Sri Lanka and its President.
In response, Georgieva informed the President that another IMF delegation would visit Sri Lanka in March, and that discussions would begin to expedite the release of the currently suspended fifth and sixth loan tranches.
An Invitation from Macron
Another major highlight of the visit was the President’s discussion with French President Emmanuel Macron. The President informed Macron that he had received an invitation to visit France and was planning a future trip.
Unexpectedly, Macron responded by inviting him to undertake the visit as an official state visit. The President reportedly expressed his gratitude with a smile.
This invitation is significant because, to date, only one Sri Lankan President—Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga—has undertaken an official state visit to France at the formal invitation of the French government. She did so in 2001 at the invitation of then-President Jacques Chirac.
Although Ranil Wickremesinghe also visited France later, his trip was to attend a summit rather than a formal state visit, though he did meet President Macron during that occasion.
Sergio Gor to Visit
During the India visit, the President also met Sergio Gor, described as U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Representative for South and Central Asia and the U.S. Ambassador to India.
Previously, when the President travelled to New York in September to address the UN General Assembly, he had also met Sergio Gor. At that time, Gor reportedly conveyed that he could facilitate communication with President Trump whenever necessary.
In New Delhi, following a phone conversation, a special in-person meeting was arranged between the President and Gor. After discussions lasting over half an hour, Gor reportedly informed the President that he plans to visit Sri Lanka in April. With the United States having already provided several Coast Guard vessels to Sri Lanka, it is expected that Gor’s visit may coincide with the handover of another such vessel.
Navin’s Major Move
While a small group within both the SJB and the UNP are allegedly attempting to undermine the growing unity between the two parties, there are also sincere efforts within the UNP to strengthen that unity. One prominent figure in this regard is party Vice Chairman Navin Dissanayake.
Navin has been actively involved in discussions between representatives of the two parties, including meetings held at the Taj Samudra’s Colombo Club. He is currently organizing the 84th birth anniversary commemoration of his late father, Gamini Dissanayake.
At a recent religious event at Sri Jayawardenearama Temple in Kotte, SJB leader Sajith Premadasa and former UNP Deputy Leader Karunasena Jayasuriya were also present. Positive discussions reportedly took place between Sajith and Navin regarding party unity, with Karu offering his blessings.
Navin is said to be planning his father’s commemoration not merely as a memorial event, but as a symbolic turning point toward solidifying unity between the SJB and the UNP—inviting leading figures from both parties to demonstrate that unity is inevitable.
An Opposition Proposal
The government is preparing to hold Provincial Council elections either at the end of this year or early next year and has appointed a parliamentary select committee to determine the electoral system to be used.
The opposition plans to propose that the elections be conducted under the previous electoral system and has indicated its willingness to support such a motion.
Meanwhile, a private motion previously submitted by Ravi Karunanayake calling for a special parliamentary committee to review the electoral systems for four types of elections—including presidential, parliamentary, provincial council, and local government elections—has sparked debate.
Although Ravi introduced the proposal 13 months ago, the political context has since changed. With a committee already appointed to review the Provincial Council system and required to report within three months, Ravi’s proposal—suggesting a one-year review period—was seen as conflicting.
Following objections raised by the Tamil Arasu Katchi, Ravi agreed to remove the Provincial Council component from his proposal, easing the controversy.
