Besides Nitish Kumar’s charisma, the government’s cash assistance scheme played a significant role in the election outcome. Nitish Kumar, who has cultivated a strong support base among women since 2006 through initiatives such as providing bicycles for school-going girls and reserving 50 percent of seats for women in panchayats, continued this focus in the latest election. The direct benefit transfer of Rs.10,000 to 75 lakh women under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana proved especially impactful. This translated into gains not only for his party but for the entire NDA.
Women voted in large numbers, with a turnout of 71.78 percent compared to 62.98 percent for men. This mirrors similar patterns seen in previous elections—such as the support for the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP in Madhya Pradesh in 2023 due to the Ladli Behna Yojana, and for the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly polls driven by the Maiya Samman Yojana. Likewise, in Maharashtra, the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana (popularly known as the Ladki Bahin scheme) helped the NDA counter anti-incumbency in 2024.
Women Power the Victory
At the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] office in Patna, women party workers turned up in large numbers to greet Nitish Kumar after the victory. BJP leader and Union Minister Giriraj Singh said Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav failed to appear credible, resulting in the Mahagathbandhan’s defeat. After the election, even the BJP shed its earlier reservations about Nitish Kumar. Singh, once a staunch critic of Nitish, praised him as a symbol of development and women’s empowerment.
JD(U) performance over the years:
Year Vote Percentage Seats
2010 22.58% 115
2015 16.58% 71
2020 15.39% 43
2025 18.97% 82
The NDA’s three-fourths majority indicates an improvement even over its strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where it led in 174 Assembly constituencies—surpassing even the alliance’s pre-poll slogan of “160 paar.”
BJP performance over the years:
Year Vote Percentage Seats
2010 16.49% 91
2015 24.42% 53
2020 19.46% 74
2025 20.87% 92
The BJP came close to replicating the NDA’s impressive 2010 tally of 206 out of 243 seats. Interestingly, the RJD is also close to its 2010 numbers, which were its lowest ever—winning 22 seats in 2010 and 26 seats in 2025, the second-lowest in its history.
RJD’s MY Conundrum
For the RJD, the inability to move beyond the traditional MY (Muslim–Yadav) voter base remained a significant drawback. The intermediary backward classes and the relatively prosperous, dominant Yadavs did not unite in rural regions, while the Asaduddin Owaisi factor further weakened the RJD in the Seemanchal belt.
Many Muslim voters questioned the rationale behind projecting Mukesh Sahani—whose Mallah community is numerically smaller than the RJD’s core Muslim support base—as the Deputy Chief Minister candidate. In Seemanchal, where Muslims felt confident due to their demographic strength, they voted based on broader identity and aspirations, allowing the AIMIM to gain traction.
RJD performance over the years:
Year Vote Percentage Seats
2010 18.84% 22
2015 18.35% 80
2020 23.11% 75
2025 22.75% 25
Early in the campaign, the Opposition’s repeated attacks on Nitish Kumar’s health backfired, further consolidating his support base. The Mahagathbandhan eventually withdrew such personal attacks after realising this miscalculation.
Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party had cost the NDA 38 seats in the previous Assembly polls, which had contributed to the MGB’s stronger performance. In Bihar’s three-pole contest—BJP, Nitish Kumar, and the RJD—the alliance of any two sides historically determined the victor, as seen with RJD–Nitish in 2015 and BJP–Nitish in 2020.
Hindutva’s Growing Footprint
While Bihar is not yet comparable to Uttar Pradesh—where the politics of Ayodhya, Mathura, and Kashi sustain Hindutva momentum—Hindutva politics is undeniably rising in the State. The BJP has also made inroads among subaltern communities.
The Congress, contesting 61 seats, lived up to its image of declining influence in Bihar, leading in fewer than five seats. This is a steep fall for a party that dominated State politics for decades after Independence until the rise of Mandal–Kamandal dynamics in the 1990s. In the previous Assembly polls, the Congress’ poor performance despite securing a large share of seats had frustrated the RJD and backward-caste leaders. This time, the party is faring even worse, but because the setback affects the entire Mahagathbandhan, assigning blame will be difficult.
The Congress’ poor showing has revived internal demands to abandon alliances with the RJD and contest independently. Senior leader Kishore Kumar Jha argued that the party fell into the trap of OBC/EBC identity politics and that surrendering completely to Tejashwi Yadav was a mistake. “In the future the party should shun alliances with such regional parties and chart its own path,” Jha told Frontline.
The Left, particularly the CPI(ML) Liberation, which had 12 seats in the last Assembly polls, also saw its gains evaporate.
Prashant Kishor’s Debut Flops
The worst setback came for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which failed to win even a single seat. In contrast, the Uttar Pradesh-based Bahujan Samaj Party managed to lead in one seat despite low visibility. Kishor had earlier said the party would either reach “arsh” (heaven) by forming a government or fall to “farsh” (the ground) by winning fewer than 10 seats. It failed to even open its account.
The outcome reflects voters’ unwillingness to take risks when the incumbent government is not viewed negatively. Many believed Nitish Kumar had not caused harm and recognised improvements in roads, electricity, and public safety. These factors outweighed desires for dramatic change, even as many young people expressed frustration with unemployment and slow development.
Prashant Kishor succeeded in highlighting unemployment and migration, gaining State-wide attention. Tejashwi Yadav also drew youth interest with his promise of providing one government job per family. However, voters ultimately chose continuity, and the BJP’s “jungleraj” narrative about Lalu Prasad’s tenure resonated with many.
Jan Suraaj spokesperson Anukriti wrote on X: “People who said they like the party and what it is trying to do for Bihar but didn’t vote for Jan Suraaj as they ‘don’t want to cut into NDA votes’ and risk putting MGB in power, are essentially never going to be forgiven by history. Kamandal politics proponents are the worst.”
Jan Suraaj Bihar president Manoj Bharti said the party aimed to usher in new politics, which proved challenging for voters to accept. “Prashant Kishor always said if people understood what we were saying, we would be on top; if they didn’t, we would fail. These trends show that people have failed to understand us, and we also failed to make them understand,” he told PTI.
Tejashwi’s Failed Outreach
Tejashwi Yadav’s attempt to reach all sections did not generate the impact that Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA (Pichchda–Dalit–Alpsankhyak) strategy achieved in Uttar Pradesh during the last Lok Sabha polls. For the Congress, the situation is even more difficult as the BJP continues to advance.
Congress leader Pawan Khera said: “The trends show Gyanesh Kumar (Chief Election Commissioner) is making an impact on the people of Bihar. The people have shown great courage despite issues like SIR and ‘vote chori’. How effective Gyanesh Kumar will be remains to be seen. This contest is between the Election Commission of India and the people of Bihar. There was a book called To Serve with Love. Gyanesh Kumar is writing this book for Prime Minister Modi.”
However, the challenges facing the Congress and the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan in Bihar extend far beyond these observations.
