In the history of elections in Sri Lanka, there have been only two instances when a provincial council or local government election was held within a month after a national election like a presidential or general election. One instance was after the 2024 presidential election on September 21, with a subsequent by-election in Elpitiya on October 26. Previously, in 2004, a provincial council election took place shortly after a general election—the general election was held on April 2, followed by the North Western Provincial Council election on April 24.
A parallel can be drawn between the 2004 general election, held on April 2 with the United National Party (UNP) government under Ranil Wickremesinghe in power, and the April 24 North Western Provincial Council election. During this time, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) formed a coalition to establish the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), which successfully overturned Ranil’s government through the 2004 general election. Similarly, in 2024, when the presidential election was held in September, Ranil was once again the head of the government as president. The JVP won the presidential election, leading to the dissolution of Ranil’s administration.
The 2024 general election was won by the SLFP-JVP alliance with 45.60% of the vote, while Ranil’s UNP was defeated with 37.83%. In the Kurunegala District, the SLFP-JVP alliance won 51.9% of the vote, while the UNP received 42.6%. In the Puttalam District, the SLFP-JVP alliance secured 49.3%, while the UNP was defeated with 46.6%. In the North Western Provincial Council election of April 24, 2004, the SLFP-JVP alliance garnered 59.85% of the vote in Kurunegala, while the UNP obtained 35.69%. In Puttalam, the SLFP-JVP alliance won 57.10%, while the UNP achieved 42.46%.
When analyzing these results, it is evident that the SLFP-JVP alliance increased its voter percentage in Kurunegala from 51.09% in the general election to 59.85% in the provincial council election held a month later. In Puttalam, their percentage increased from 49.3% in the general election to 57.10% in the subsequent provincial council election. This is not unusual; in political trends worldwide, the winning party in a national election often capitalizes on that momentum in any subsequent local elections held within a short period.
However, in the recent 2024 Elpitiya by-election, the question arises: “Where did that wave go?” In the 2024 presidential election, the JVP secured 49.37% in Elpitiya, but in the by-election held a month later, their percentage dropped to 47.64%. Unlike the 2004 North Western Provincial Council election, where the government gained strength, there was no weakening of the opposition.
After the 2024 presidential election, Anura’s dominance appeared so strong that political heavyweights withdrew from the general election out of fear of his wave of influence. Figures such as Ranil and Mahinda, along with others like Wimal Weerawansa and Champika Ranawaka, chose not to participate. Given this context, one might have expected the JVP to achieve around 70% in Elpitiya, yet that did not happen. The usual principle, where the winning party in a national election dominates a local election held soon after, did not hold. Instead, the JVP saw a decrease in its vote percentage.
So, what happened to the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB)? Traditionally, an opposition party that loses a national election often faces a more significant defeat in a local or provincial election held shortly afterwards. This was evident in 2004 when the UNP, after losing the general election in April, faced a substantial defeat in the North Western Provincial Council election later that month.
However, in 2019, during the Elpitiya local government election held ahead of the presidential election, the UNP could not secure a single division. At that time, Ranil was prime minister, and there was no Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB); Ranil and Sajith were united. Even then, the UNP failed to win any division in Elpitiya. Based on this inability, doubts arose about the UNP’s chances of winning the 2019 presidential election. However, after losing the 2024 presidential election, six SJB members won seats, including two divisions, despite internal disagreements over nominations and challenges posed by defections from the UNP.
This outcome highlights the strength of the SJB as one of Sri Lanka’s most formidable parties today, while the JVP and the National People’s Power (NPP) are seen as forces rather than stable parties. In the 2024 presidential election, support for the NPP largely came from former Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) supporters who are not necessarily dedicated NPP members and may shift their allegiance to another party or leader in the future. Conversely, SJB members are more rooted in the UNP’s traditional base, unlikely to leave the party even if their former leader, Ranil, is now the president.
The Elpitiya result sends a strong message to the UNP that, despite their efforts, the SJB remains firmly established as a major political force in Sri Lanka. While some SJB MPs may praise Ranil or openly criticize the party’s decisions, they remain loyal to the SJB. This steadfastness signifies the SJB’s growing influence in Sri Lanka’s political landscape, establishing it as a powerful party.
