Mahinda’s Return: More Than an Envoy’s Mission? Political Signals Ahead of July Comeback
Three Issues Unite Tamil–Muslim Leaders, Government Watches Closely
France Visit Abruptly Called Off: Silence Fuels Political Speculation
Next Budget’s Big Move: Transport Sector Set for Major Boost
A Serious Warning Sign
Amid the fallout from the clash at the Negombo Prison, another major political development dominated headlines last week—the unprecedented joint media briefing held in Parliament by Tamil and Muslim political parties representing the North, East and the Hill Country.
The media conference brought together the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) led by M.A. Sumanthiran, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) led by Rauff Hakeem, the All-Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) led by Rishad Bathiudeen, UNP parliamentarian Jeevan Thondaman representing the plantation community, and leaders of the Tamil Progressive Alliance, including Mano Ganesan and Palani Digambaram. In effect, it marked the coming together of almost every major Tamil and Muslim political force in the country.
SJB alliance
What made the event particularly significant was the participation of Hakeem, Bathiudeen, Ganesan and Digambaram, all of whom are members of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya-led opposition alliance.
Several pro-government media outlets and political commentators quickly portrayed the development as evidence that 18 SJB MPs were preparing to break away and form a separate alliance, claiming that the Opposition had fractured beyond repair and was heading towards collapse.
Immerging alliance
However, none of those media organisations—or even those claiming to provide balanced reporting—explained what was really behind this emerging alliance. As always, Inside Politics undertook an in-depth investigation into the political developments behind the Tamil-Muslim coalition.
Our findings suggest that this new political alignment has sent an extremely serious warning signal to the Government.
From the very beginning, Inside Politics has consistently argued that the government’s continued failure to hold provincial council elections would eventually create a major political crisis. We also pointed out several months ago that the emergence of Thalapathy Vijay as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu would likely accelerate that process.
Pressure from TN
Traditionally, whenever decisive issues affecting Sri Lanka’s Tamil population arose, the Indian Central Government took the lead in responding. However, following Vijay’s rise in Tamil Nadu politics, we predicted that political pressure would increasingly originate from Tamil Nadu itself before reaching New Delhi. That pressure, we argued, would then influence the Indian Central Government through multiple channels.
Today, inside politics can reveal that this process appears to have already begun.
For this reason, we urge the public not to be misled by politically motivated propaganda, fabricated news reports or misleading political analyses driven by hidden agendas.
Meanwhile, under the current political climate, the Government itself is in no position to comfortably hold Provincial Council elections. Internal opinion surveys conducted over recent months have reportedly warned the leadership against conducting the elections, predicting severe political consequences if they proceed. Inside Politics has previously reported these findings on several occasions.
When JVP General Secretary Tilvin Silva recently visited Jaffna, he claimed that Provincial Council elections could not be held this year because the allocated funds had been diverted to address the damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah.
Public contradiction
However, just days later, Cabinet Spokesman Nalinda Jayatissa publicly contradicted that statement, calling it false. Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya also told Parliament that no funds allocated for the Provincial Council elections had been redirected for cyclone relief, and that the Government had already made the necessary financial allocations to hold the elections.
The fact that Tilvin Silva made one claim while both the Cabinet Spokesman and the Prime Minister publicly rejected it suggests that his remarks had begun to undermine the Government’s own political strategy and economic narrative.
Where It All Began
Contrary to public perception, last week’s gathering of Tamil and Muslim political parties was not a sudden reaction to recent political events. Rather, it was the culmination of a series of discussions that had been taking place over the past month and a half.
The first of these meetings was held on June 3 at the Colombo residence of former MP M.A. Sumanthiran, General Secretary of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK). Except for a few Tamil and Muslim party leaders, invitations were extended to virtually every major representative from these communities.
Notably, four MPs were deliberately left out of the discussions. They were Archuna Ramanathan, the newly elected MP from the North, Kader Mastan, Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam, and Imran Maharoof. Political leaders involved in organising the initiative had reached a consensus from the outset that these four parliamentarians would not be invited for a variety of political reasons.
Three key issues
Those who gathered at Sumanthiran’s residence began discussions on three key issues:
- Introducing a new constitution;
- Holding long-delayed Provincial Council elections; and
- Resolving the longstanding land disputes affecting Tamil communities in the North, East and the Hill Country.
These were all issues on which the NPP government had made repeated promises, both during the presidential election campaign and after assuming office.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and other senior government leaders had travelled to Jaffna and publicly pledged to introduce a new constitution, hold provincial council elections without delay and release lands in the North still occupied by the military to their original civilian owners.
None fulfilled
However, despite nearly two years in office, the Government has neither presented a new Constitution nor initiated any meaningful public discussion on constitutional reform.
Similarly, when it comes to Provincial Council elections, the Government now appears to be following the same path as former President Ranil Wickremesinghe by continuing to postpone them rather than taking concrete steps to hold them.
Although some progress has reportedly been made in releasing military-held lands, large areas in the North and East remain under the control of the security forces.
Against this backdrop, participants at the first meeting agreed that all Tamil and Muslim political parties should work together on these three issues.
Work together
It was also proposed that a coordinator be appointed to manage the alliance’s future activities. While Jeevan Thondaman suggested the need for such a position, Rauff Hakeem recommended Shanakiyan Rasamanickam, describing him as someone fluent in all three national languages and capable of maintaining good working relationships with every political party represented. The proposal received unanimous approval.
Subsequently, the party leaders met several more times both inside and outside Parliament to continue discussions on the three issues. They also agreed to hold a joint media conference to formally present their collective position to the country.
Free to make decisions
At the same time, they reached another important understanding. While each party would remain free to make its own decisions on other political matters arising inside or outside Parliament, they would maintain a common position on the three agreed issues—constitutional reform, Provincial Council elections and the land question.
Another important factor behind this unprecedented unity was the outcome of the 2019 and 2024 Presidential Elections.
In 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and in 2024, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, secured victory primarily through overwhelming support from the Sinhala-Buddhist electorate in the South. That voting bloc accounted for approximately 76 per cent of the total vote, while the combined Tamil and Muslim vote represented only 24 per cent.
Declining political power
This reality has prompted growing concern among Tamil and Muslim political parties. Their assessment is that if future presidential elections can continue to be won solely on the strength of the Sinhala-Buddhist vote, the bargaining power of minority parties will be significantly weakened, and the political voice of Tamil and Muslim communities will carry far less influence.
Consequently, they believe the time has come for all Tamil and Muslim political parties to unite and strengthen their collective voice.
That objective, insiders say, has become one of the key driving forces behind the formation of this new political alliance.
A Message from India?
Meanwhile, it can be observed that the government has launched several special political initiatives aimed at winning the support of the Tamil and Muslim communities in the North and East, as well as the Malayaga (up-country) Tamil community in the plantation sector.
This is because the government’s view is that, unlike in previous national elections, there is a greater possibility that the Sinhala Buddhist vote base in the South will be divided rather than united. In such a situation, the key factor that could determine the outcome of an election would be the Tamil and Muslim votes in the North, East, and the plantation areas.
However, anyone who understands the politics of this country and the political behaviour of the Tamil and Muslim communities in the North, East, and plantation areas accepts a well-known reality: all these Tamil and Muslim political parties are deeply connected with India and Tamil Nadu when making their political decisions. They hold discussions with them and make decisions based on the messages they receive from them.
Therefore, when a united political alliance is being formed around the three major issues affecting the Tamil people in the North, East, and plantation areas — the creation of a new Constitution, holding Provincial Council elections, and resolving the land issue — it cannot be assumed that such a development would take place without the knowledge and approval of India and Tamil Nadu.
Government is under pressure
According to those who understand politics, in the face of this emerging political influence, the government is expected to come under strong pressure from the North, East, and plantation areas within the next year to hold Provincial Council elections.
Accordingly, this new political alliance has already decided to meet the President at the first stage and hold special discussions focusing on three issues: the new Constitution, Provincial Council elections, and the land issue.
If the President attempts to delay holding Provincial Council elections, as happened in the past, by engaging in verbal arguments and explanations, this Tamil-Muslim political alliance has already decided to take this issue to the international level.
What is Anura doing?
Amid all these developments, what is the President doing these days?
Previously, the President could be seen publicly expressing his views at various events based on different political developments. However, despite several political events taking place during the past few weeks, many have noticed that the President has maintained a certain silence.
Even when the President came to Parliament, there was no occasion on which he expressed his views.
Secret discussions
However, although the President has not made any public statements, last week he took steps to hold two highly important discussions behind the scenes.
One of these discussions was held with the JVP and the NPP (National People’s Power). The second important discussion was held with economic advisers from the Ministry of Finance and the Treasury.
The first discussion was held by the President with officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Treasury. During this meeting, the President took steps to make several important decisions.
Policy direction
In particular, since the 2027 Budget is scheduled to be presented to Parliament in November this year, the President clearly informed officials about the government’s policy direction during these discussions.
During the meeting, the president first asked officials about the areas where previous governments had spent the largest amounts of money in past budgets.
Officials informed him that the government had spent more mainly on health and education.
The President then asked officials how much money previous governments had allocated for the transport sector.
In response, officials said that successive governments had allocated around 1% or less of the national budget for transport.
However, after receiving this answer, the President gave a response that surprised everyone.
Transport gets priority.
“As a policy decision, our government and I have now decided to allocate a large amount of money for transport. One of the biggest problems faced by the people of our country is the issue of transportation.
In the next Budget, we need to bring about a major change in the transport sector. We need to take steps to bring the bus service and railway service to the highest possible level. That is our policy.
If ordinary people receive a good public transport service, they do not need to spend millions of rupees to buy vehicles.
Our neighbouring countries and other countries around the world have high-quality public transport systems. But in our country, the public transport service is still not at a level that can be accepted.
New buses
Our target is to remove all the old buses currently operating on the roads within the next eight years. We know this is not something that can be done within one or two years. But we have already started that process.
At present, we have planned to introduce metro buses on all routes to make public travel more convenient. We will continue this programme over the next eight years.
We will remove all these old buses and create a new transport service in this country for the convenience of the people.”
The President also expressed his views to officials on ways to develop the railway service.
Electric trains
“Similarly, we have decided to introduce an electric railway service focusing on areas such as Fort–Ragama, Fort–Panadura, and Fort–Kottawa, where a large number of people travel to offices.
We have already held discussions with the Railway Department regarding this. They have informed us that the project can be completed within four years.
This will be a great benefit to people who travel to offices.”
The President told the officials.
Tender First, Funds Later
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake also used the meeting to address what he described as a key reason for delays in implementing budget proposals.
“We allocate funds for projects through the Budget, but government ministries only begin calling for tenders after the Budget is passed. By then, almost an entire year is lost before implementation even begins. That is a complete waste of time.
“So, for projects that we have already decided to implement, ministries should start calling for tenders immediately. Since the tender process itself takes seven to eight months, by the time it is completed we will have already allocated the required funds through the Budget. Then, as soon as the budget is approved, work can begin without delay.
“This will save nearly a year and allow the public to benefit from these projects much sooner. Therefore, the Treasury should immediately notify each ministry in writing about the projects for which funding has been earmarked, enabling them to begin the tender process right away.”
These were the instructions the President reportedly gave Treasury and Finance Ministry officials during the discussion.
A Nationwide Political Campaign
The President’s next key meeting was with senior leaders of the JVP and the National People’s Power (NPP), where they held lengthy discussions on the country’s current political climate and emerging challenges.
Although no national election is expected in the immediate future, the meeting concluded with a decision to launch a massive nationwide political campaign.
The plan includes a series of large district-level rallies featuring the President and senior NPP leaders, alongside an extensive door-to-door campaign to engage and educate voters nationwide.
The campaign is expected to continue uninterrupted for around three months. Party leaders are also expected to finalise a joint schedule in the coming days outlining the President’s participation as well as the roles of other senior figures in the campaign.
What prompted the Government’s sudden decision to embark on a nationwide political mobilisation?
Has the President sensed that mounting pressure from Tamil political parties in the North, East and the Hill Country to hold Provincial Council elections is inevitable?
Inside Politics has previously reported that the Government has realised it cannot indefinitely postpone the Provincial Council elections through procedural tactics such as appointing parliamentary select committees and other political manoeuvres.
Against that backdrop, many political observers believe the President may already be quietly preparing for the possibility of being compelled to hold the elections, even if the Government is not publicly acknowledging such pressure.
France Visit Cancelled
Another important issue that received relatively little public attention last week, largely because of the Negombo Prison violence, was the sudden postponement of President Dissanayake’s planned visit to France.
The visit had been scheduled to begin on July 13 but was abruptly cancelled without any official explanation.
Although the matter was not widely discussed publicly, it became the subject of considerable speculation in political and diplomatic circles.
The invitation had originated during a meeting in New Delhi, where French President Emmanuel Macron personally invited President Dissanayake to visit France.
The Sri Lankan President had reportedly been particularly enthusiastic about the trip. In fact, so keen was he on the visit that he instructed the Foreign Ministry to expedite the appointment of a permanent Sri Lankan Ambassador to France, replacing the acting envoy already serving there.
Why, then, was a visit the President had been so eager to undertake cancelled at the last minute?
No official explanation
So far, neither the President’s Office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs nor the French Government has issued an official explanation.
However, citing Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath, several international media outlets reported that the visit had been postponed due to unforeseen developments and would be rescheduled.
Nevertheless, Inside Politics has learned from several sources that a number of theories are circulating regarding the cancellation.
One line of speculation links the postponement to renewed military action by US President Donald Trump against Iran. According to this view, the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have placed France in a difficult diplomatic position, prompting President Macron to defer the meeting and propose an alternative date.
GSP+ at Risk
Another source suggests that, although it has received relatively little international publicity, the violent incident at Negombo Prison may also have contributed to the postponement of the President’s French visit.
According to reports, the European Commission has already begun raising serious questions with Sri Lankan authorities over the killings inside Negombo Prison. Senior Government representatives have reportedly been asked to provide detailed explanations, while the Commission has also requested official reports on the incident.
Many observers believe the prison violence could have serious implications for Sri Lanka’s GSP+ trade concession, which the European Union grants largely based on compliance with human rights standards.
The current GSP+ arrangement is due to expire in March next year, and Sri Lanka has already entered a new round of negotiations with the European Commission seeking an extension.
However, the Commission has reportedly indicated that the events at Negombo Prison appear, at first glance, to involve serious human rights violations.
As a result, several parties are now said to be lobbying the European Commission not to renew Sri Lanka’s GSP+ benefits.
Negombo incident to Geneva?
In addition, reliable sources told inside politics that the Negombo Prison incident is expected to feature prominently at the UN Human Rights Council session in Geneva this September.
Several influential countries are reportedly considering tabling a resolution against Sri Lanka based on the prison incident.
Many political observers therefore believe these developments may also have influenced the decision to postpone President Dissanayake’s visit to France.
However, since no official explanation has yet been issued by any of the parties concerned, the reasons behind the sudden cancellation remain the subject of widespread speculation.
All 65 Opposed It
In last week’s Inside Politics column, we revealed extensive details about the growing opposition within Sri Lanka’s legal fraternity to the Government’s proposal to extend the retirement age of the Chief Justice and Supreme Court judges by two years.
We reported that the Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL), the Law Association for Asia and the Pacific (LAWASIA), the Commonwealth Lawyers Association, as well as associations representing Magistrates’ Courts and High Courts, had all publicly opposed the proposal. We also highlighted that the Judicial Service Association (JSA)—which represents Magistrates and District Judges—was due to hold its General Assembly, and that its decision on the matter would be closely watched across the legal community.
However, we must correct one error in our previous report. We mistakenly stated that the meeting would be held on Saturday the 18th. In fact, it took place on Saturday the 11th.
As anticipated, the General Assembly proved to be both highly significant and highly contentious.
The drama began just 24 hours before the meeting, when Judge Pasan Amarasena, who had been serving as President of the Judicial Service Association, submitted his resignation through a written letter.
Despite his resignation, the meeting proceeded as scheduled under the leadership of the Association’s Secretary. A total of 65 representatives attended.
The most striking outcome was that all 65 members unanimously rejected the Government’s proposal to extend the retirement age of Supreme Court judges.
The decision immediately dominated headlines on Saturday, with many describing it as a major political setback for the Government and one of the strongest institutional rebukes it had received from within the judiciary itself.
Testing the Waters?
Perhaps anticipating such an outcome, an unsigned report suddenly surfaced on Saturday claiming that the Government was planning not only to extend the retirement age of Supreme Court judges but of all judges by two years.
Political observers were quick to dismiss the report as an attempt by the Government to “test the waters,” particularly because it originated from no identifiable or credible source.
Nevertheless, the report had one immediate effect.
Public attention shifted away from the proposal concerning only Supreme Court judges, as speculation spread on social media that the extension would instead apply across the entire judiciary.
Sajith Enters the Battle
Inside politics can now reveal another important development for the first time.
Several days before the Judicial Service Association’s General Assembly, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa quietly launched a political initiative to rally the entire Opposition against the Government’s proposal.
In an unprecedented move, Sajith began personally contacting leaders of both parliamentary and non-parliamentary opposition parties in an effort to build a united front.
Last week, this column also revealed that SLPP National Organiser Namal Rajapaksa had written to Sajith explaining his party’s position on the issue.
Following that, Sajith personally telephoned Rauff Hakeem, Rishad Bathiudeen, Mano Ganesan, Palani Digambaram and M.A. Sumanthiran. He also contacted Archuna Ramanathan, Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam and Douglas Devananda.
In addition, he spoke with Chamara Sampath Dassanayake, who entered Parliament under the UNP-backed “Gas Cylinder” symbol.
Most notably, Sajith also reached out to UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and SLPP National Organiser Namal Rajapaksa, seeking discussions on building a common strategy.
During these conversations, Sajith stressed the need for a coordinated opposition campaign to defeat the Government’s proposal.
He also informed party leaders that he had convened a special meeting at the Opposition Leader’s Office on July 23 to discuss the matter further and invited them all to participate.
According to sources, every leader responded positively to the invitation.
Interestingly, the Judicial Service Association’s unanimous decision was announced while Sajith was still in the middle of making these calls.
Whether the Government was rattled by the judiciary’s stance, or by Sajith’s attempt to unite the entire Opposition, remains unclear.
However, it was only after these developments that reports began circulating suggesting the Government was considering extending the retirement age of all judges, rather than only Supreme Court judges.
No official statement
So far, neither the Government nor President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has made an official statement on the matter.
Even at the Cabinet media briefing, officials merely confirmed that the issue had been discussed by the Cabinet.
According to information obtained by inside politics, however, the President has now taken a step back from the original proposal and is prepared to support extending the retirement age across the entire judiciary rather than limiting it to Supreme Court judges alone.
The proposal is reportedly expected to be brought before Parliament for approval through a formal resolution.
Mahinda Returns
If one were asked who has emerged as Sri Lanka’s most accomplished diplomat in recent decades after the late Lakshman Kadirgamar, many seasoned political observers would answer without hesitation: Mahinda Samarasinghe.
Like Kadirgamar, Samarasinghe has left a lasting mark on Sri Lanka’s diplomacy.
Following the military defeat of the LTTE in 2009, when Sri Lanka faced a war crimes resolution at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Samarasinghe successfully mobilised international support and led the first-ever successful effort to defeat such a resolution through a vote.
He later served as Foreign Minister under President Gotabaya Rajapaksa before being appointed Sri Lanka’s Ambassador to the United States.
During his tenure in Washington, he helped secure significant American assistance for Sri Lanka during both the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic crisis.
Recognising his diplomatic effectiveness, President Ranil Wickremesinghe retained him as Ambassador even after assuming office.
We reveal first
When President Anura Kumara Dissanayake came to power, many expected Samarasinghe to be recalled along with other ambassadors.
Although the new administration replaced most envoys, Samarasinghe was among the handful retained.
Despite widespread expectations that a left-leaning NPP Government would strengthen ties primarily with China and Russia, Samarasinghe instead played a key role in fostering close relations between Washington and the new administration.
He was instrumental in establishing a close working relationship between President Dissanayake and Sergio Gor, a senior US official responsible for South and Central Asian affairs and a close associate of President Donald Trump.
Samarasinghe also helped reduce US tariffs on Sri Lankan exports from 44 per cent to 19 per cent, while facilitating the transfer of several US Coast Guard vessels and helicopters to Sri Lanka.
Despite these achievements—and despite having time remaining in his term—Samarasinghe decided to retire as Ambassador at the end of this month.
Inside Politics was the first publication to report this decision.
During his tenure, Samarasinghe also became well known among Sri Lankan Buddhist communities in the United States for his support of Buddhist temples and clergy.
Special felicitation
In recognition of his service, Buddhist monks representing temples across the Washington DC area and California organised a special felicitation ceremony for him last Saturday at the Washington Buddhist Vihara, founded by the late Ven. Madihe Pannaseeha Thera.
The event marked the first occasion on which the Buddhist clergy from the US capital region and beyond had gathered to honour the service of a departing Sri Lankan Ambassador.
Addressing the gathering, Samarasinghe reflected on his experiences and challenges during his diplomatic tenure, thanking both the Maha Sangha and the Sri Lankan community for their support. He also reaffirmed his commitment to continue serving Sri Lanka even after leaving office.
The ceremony, organised under the guidance of Ven. Maharagama Dhammasiri Thera, Chief Incumbent of the Washington Buddhist Vihara, was attended by 16 Buddhist monks, members of the Sri Lankan community and numerous well-wishers.
Own decision
During his farewell remarks, Samarasinghe disclosed for the first time that no one had asked him to resign; the decision had been entirely his own.
He also hinted that Sri Lanka could soon receive more positive news regarding the current 19 per cent US tariff, suggesting that further progress was on the horizon.
Last week, Samarasinghe also carried out another significant diplomatic engagement by presenting the first copy of a commemorative coffee-table book, published by the Sri Lankan Embassy to mark the 250th anniversary of American independence, to Allison Hooker, the US State Department’s senior official for political affairs.
Hooker expressed her appreciation for Samarasinghe’s contribution to Sri Lanka during a particularly challenging period.
He also held discussions with Paul Kapur, the US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, as well as with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Samarasinghe is scheduled to return to Sri Lanka on July 31.
Political sources say that several parties and senior political leaders have already begun making approaches in the hope of persuading him to return to active politics.
According to reports, some have even conveyed their interest through text messages.
No political office
However, sources close to Samarasinghe indicate that he has no intention of accepting any political offer.
There are also reports that the Government has already identified a special position for him, although he has yet to make any decision.
Instead, Samarasinghe is said to have decided that, rather than aligning himself with any political party or office, he intends to use his extensive diplomatic experience and international network to serve Sri Lanka in whatever capacity he can.
