Bangladesh’s student leaders, who were a driving force behind the mass protests that led to the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024, now face an uncertain political future.
Despite their central role in the uprising, the youth-led movement has been allocated only a small share of parliamentary seats under a new electoral alliance led by Jamaat-e-Islami — an Islamist party that had long been politically marginalised but has re-emerged as a major player.
Under the agreement, the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP) will contest just 30 of the 253 constituencies fielded by the bloc, compared with 179 reserved for Jamaat.
Analysts say this arrangement raises doubts about how much influence the youth movement will wield in governing the nation after the election scheduled for February 12.
The limited number of seats has sparked concerns that the leaders who once embodied the promise of political change may now be sidelined, even as the youth vote emerges as a decisive force, with nearly 40% of the electorate aged between 18 and 37.
Student leaders were instrumental in advocating for Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus to head the interim administration following Hasina’s ousting and publicly championed greater inclusiveness and transparency, raising hopes for a democratic reset.
“Youth leaders should find greater space. I hope they don’t lose prominence,” said Sreeradha Datta, a professor of international relations at O.P. Jindal Global University, noting their repeated advocacy for democratic values.
However, she added that the students’ decision to align with an Islamist party like Jamaat conflicted with the ideals they had articulated during the protests.
“The fact that they have gone with Jamaat is a desperate move,” Datta said.
Formed only in February last year, the NCP lacks a solid grassroots organisational base despite its high-profile role in mobilising protests against Hasina’s Awami League.
Kamal Ahmad, founder of the Asian University for Women in Chittagong, described the NCP’s partnership with Jamaat as a “surprise” that has already prompted several student leaders to resign.
Datta said the alliance appeared to be a miscalculation, suggesting that a partnership with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which maintains a more centrist stance on issues such as religious inclusiveness, might have been a better fit for the NCP.
Some within the NCP have acknowledged that the decision was driven by pragmatic seat negotiations. Jamaat reportedly offered the party far more constituencies than the BNP did — a deal too tempting for some leaders to pass up, even as dissenters warned it risked undermining the movement’s democratic ideals.
The BNP is widely expected to win next month’s election following the return of Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, who passed away last month. The Awami League, the party’s traditional rival, has been barred from contesting by the interim administration under anti-terrorism legislation, citing allegations of human rights abuses during Hasina’s rule.
Jamaat’s resurgence marks a striking turnaround for a party long vilified for its role in the 1971 war of independence, when it supported Pakistan. Bangladesh’s Supreme Court lifted a ban on the party last year that had been in place for more than a decade.
Analysts say the party’s new alliance with the student movement could help it reclaim political relevance but may come at a cost to the students’ image as agents of reform.
“The youth is fundamental and critical for the coming election because the revolution was orchestrated by the students,” said London-based South Asia analyst Priyajit Debsarkar, adding that the movement was essentially being “sidelined.”
Even if the alliance wins, he noted, the NCP’s small number of seats in parliament would limit its influence on policy.
Concerns about the country’s direction have deepened in recent months amid reports of sporadic violence against minority groups, including Hindus, which have strained relations with neighbouring India. The interim administration led by Yunus has moved to downplay such incidents, but observers say guarantees of minority rights remain largely absent.
“We have not seen any guarantees of minority rights emerge out of this crisis, even though they have often been targets of repression and killings,” Ahmad said.
Official campaigning for the election is set to begin on Thursday amid a fraught political climate.
“We are moving towards the election at a time when state security is precarious,” Ahmad said. “The biggest challenge will be in managing the election without unbounded violence.”
Meanwhile, the excluded Awami League has threatened to block the vote through nationwide protests, a move analysts warn could further complicate efforts to conduct a credible election.
Its exclusion, Ahmad said, “can only exacerbate the schism that pervades this society” — a divide over whether Bangladesh emerges as a secular democracy or veers toward becoming an “intolerant, Islamist” state.
“The interim government came into existence out of a crisis, and it is only through a free and fair election that the country can finally overcome the crisis,” he added.
