Before the 2019 presidential election was officially announced, then-President Maithripala Sirisena had informed the Election Commissioner, via the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) secretary, of his intention to run. Despite having reconciled with the Rajapaksas, Sirisena harboured animosity toward the Pohottuwa party, which had emerged from defectors of the SLFP. He believed that if he contested, Pohottuwa would be defeated, as evidenced by his 1.2 million votes in the 2018 local government elections.
“Sir, by running in this election, even if Pohottuwa is defeated and you come in third, both your political career and ours will be over. The best option is to support Pohottuwa.” This was the advice from Sirisena’s advisors and the SLFP MPs who had previously backed Ranil’s government but later left. They further urged him: “Our enemy is the UNP, let’s defeat them and bring Pohottuwa to power. Don’t let coming in third make you a traitor.”
Sirisena heeded their counsel and, despite his preference for Sajith, allowed the SLFP to back Pohottuwa’s candidate, Gotabaya. Even with his flaws, Sirisena ultimately stood by his party.
“Why isn’t Ranil doing the same?”
Today, Ranil finds himself in a situation similar to Sirisena’s. He is contesting the presidential election, knowing full well he is unlikely to win. His advisors are aware of this too. The difference is that neither Ranil’s advisors nor the UNP seem concerned. For them, Ranil and the party’s continued involvement in politics until the end is the priority.
For the first time in 30 years, the UNP has a chance to elect a president by popular vote, with Sajith being the frontrunner. Sajith’s father, Ranasinghe Premadasa, risked everything to save the UNP during a time when its members couldn’t even appear in public. If Premadasa hadn’t won in 1988, the UNP would not exist today. He made significant sacrifices, leading fearlessly while party officials were killed in the streets, ultimately securing the party’s survival. Sajith lost his father when Premadasa was assassinated by the LTTE, but no other leader has done more for the UNP.
“Sir, you will come in third this time. Let’s support Sajith and unite the UNP to defeat the JVP,” is what Ranil should be hearing from his advisors, but instead, they seem content with Anura becoming president as long as Sajith is kept out and the UNP is destroyed. Ranil’s advisors tell him: “Sir, it’s fine if Anura wins; just don’t let Sajith.”
Ranil began his campaign by sidelining the UNP, even removing the elephant symbol in favour of a gas cylinder logo. During the 2010 and 2015 elections, the elephant remained the party’s symbol, even though the candidates were Fonseka and Sirisena. This shift signals that Ranil now sees no future for the UNP. However, as the campaign progressed, Ranil realized not only would he fail to win, but he also wouldn’t even secure second place. From that point, he shifted his focus from defeating Pohottuwa to weakening Sajith. He increased his efforts in the North and East, where Sajith had strong support, aiming to erode his minority votes. Ranil visited Jaffna five times, positioning himself as the minority candidate.
The JVP welcomed these moves. Their official website recently noted that Ranil’s brothers, who were managing his campaign, had filed complaints against two officials from the President’s Media Division for carrying out anti-JVP campaigns. This suggests that Ranil’s media team was instructed to avoid targeting the JVP. Moreover, just before postal voting began, Anura Kumara appeared on the Independent Television Network, a strategic move on his part. Anura’s goal is to see Ranil play a role similar to that of Ossie Abeygunasekera in 1988.
Ossie ran in the 1988 presidential election to siphon votes from the SLFP leader, Mrs. Bandaranaike. He represented Vijaya Kumaratunga’s Mahajana Party, led by Chandrika Kumaratunga, who was based in London at the time. Despite her warnings from abroad not to divide the SLFP’s vote, Premadasa had struck a deal with Ossie, allowing him to split the SLFP vote and secure Premadasa’s victory. Ossie was later labelled a traitor by the SLFP.
Is Ranil now playing the role of Ossie?
UNP members are starting to recognize this. Unlike in 1988, political awareness today is much more advanced. The UNP grassroots supporters know what Ranil is up to, and many are choosing to stay home, unwilling to support his actions.
