⦁ RW Change the plan
⦁ Julie Chung’s silent war
⦁ Why president’s sudden turn towards china..
These days, Sri Lanka is hit by many socio-economic political international crises at the same time. A social crisis has emerged through the simultaneous collapse of all sectors of the country and a severe economic crisis has also emerged in the country due to the simultaneous explosion of the financial crisis which has been slowly emerging for many years. At the same time, there has been a serious breakdown in the political system in the absence of a stable government.
For the first time in history, an executive president who came to power with a mandate had to kneel down before the power of the people and flee the country. At the same time, the opposition has accused that a ruler who has no popular power has been elected through a parliament by which public opinion has been distorted, and the government has not been able to stabilize the political instability that has arisen in it.
Also, immediately after the President took office, Sri Lanka faced the risk of losing the international support that the country had until then due to the attack on the Gota Go village compound overnight. Through that, the support of the International Monetary Fund, which the country is hoping for, is now in serious danger of loosing. Also, it can be clearly seen that a new crisis has emerged in the UN Human Rights Commission in Geneva due to the attack on Gota Go gama.
Saga of Chinese war ship
It was a special last week the Sri Lankan government allowed the Chinese ship ‘Yuan Wang 5’ with highly sensitive communication equipment to come to Sri Lanka, paving the way for another very serious international crisis while the country was immersed in many crises of various kind.
It is no exaggeration to say that China is on the brink of an international war these days. Because the American speaker Mrs. Nancy Polosi’s sudden visit to Taiwan. China has already declared war against, America and Taiwan.
In the face of China’s strong opposition, after the American speaker landed in Taiwan, China started a live war exercise in Taiwan’s territorial waters. While the speaker was going to the Taiwanese parliament, China flew its warplanes over the area, violating Taiwan’s airspace.
The United States also responded immediately and took steps to bring its 3 warships to Taiwan’s territorial waters. Although many people speculated that a Sino-American war would spark through this disturbance but at the last minute it was seen that it ended only with the pinch by both sides.
In the midst of this crisis, China once again provoked India, the power of the South Asian region as well as its old enemy, and asked for permission from Sri Lanka to enter a warship belonging to it to the port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka. China made an official request to the Sri Lankan government to allow its warship ‘Yuan Wang 5’ to enter Sri Lanka from August 11th to 17th.
Although the Sri Lankan media has not properly shown the country the danger that surround the chinese war ship arriving to a Sri Lankan port , according to the information we have, it is said that Sri Lanka is likely to be pushed into an extremely dangerous international crisis through this ship sailing to our harbour .
Especially at a time when huge financial support is expected from the International Monetary Fund and in a situation where there is a serious risk of passing a resolution against the country in the Geneva Human Rights Commission, the arrival of this Chinese ship may have seen that the country is in the middle of a crisis of regional powers.
The crisis related to the Chinese ship is not a new experience for Sri Lanka. In 2014, the Mahinda Rajapaksa government, which is considered to be the most powerful government at that time, also faced this Chinese ship crisis. On that instant too, China had requested permission from the Sri Lankan government to enter its submarine to the port of Colombo.
After this was reported, India was very much disturbed and told Sri Lanka not to allow the ship to reach the harbour indicating that it is a threat to the security of the region, but Mahinda’s government allowed the Chinese submarine to come to Colombo port despite the indian request.
The United States also intervened in that incident, but Mahinda’s government did not take it into consideration. At that time, as number of huge projects had started to be implemented in Sri Lanka under Chinese loan aid, and due to the strong friendship between China and the Rajapaksas, Mahinda’s government opened Sri Lankan waters to the Chinese submarine despite the Indo-American opposition.
It was the Chinese submarine that came to Colombo that paved the way for Mahinda’s government to be sent home in 2015.
Yahapalanaya and China
After that, in 2015, when the Yahapalanya government seized power and handed over the Hambantota port to China under the initiative of the then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, a great controversy arose due to India getting panic once again. Despite India’s requested not to hand over the Hambantota port to China, in the basis that it was a threat to the security of the region.
However despite the objection, Ranil took steps to hand over the Hambantota port to China. As a result, the goodwill between India and Ranil was damaged. However that India had strongly informed Sri Lanka during the time that no warships threatening the security of the region should be allowed to enter Hambantota port.
According to the information we have, it is said that based on this Indian influence, the then government had taken steps to include a related clause in the Hambantota port transfer agreement. We don’t know exact events that happened after that, but after this incident, the Yahapalan government was suddenly overthrown.
Similarly, a serious situation has emerged today due to a Chinese ship. After receiving information that a Chinese ship of this calibre is scheduled enter Hambantota port from the 11th to the 17th, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India has taken steps to inquire about it from their counter part in Sri Lanka.
It is about whether Sri Lanka has given permission for such a thing. But the Ministry of Foreign Affairs initially said that no approval has been given at the higher level, but the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have given an approval at the lower level. Mr. Ranil Wickramasinghe was acting not only as the Prime Minister but also as the Acting President at that time.
This Chinese ship, which is about to arrive in Sri Lanka, became the main news in the Indian media. Accordingly, various news related to this Chinese ship started to be reported in the Indian media and one of the issues raised by many was that these news were being published with the knowledge of the Indian government.
Many thought that China would help Sri Lanka in this difficult time, but China did not come forward to help Sri Lanka. If not for the almost 4 billion dollars loan provided by India at the crucial time, fuel, food and medicines would have disappeared in Sri Lanka within those few months.
Meeting with Indian HC
But Indian High Commissioner Gopal Bagle, who met the President last week, had taken steps to inform the President of his official objection regarding the granting of permission to a Chinese spy ship to come to Sri Lanka, regardless of India’s efforts to save Sri Lanka
According to the information we have, the President has informed the Indian High Commissioner to give reasons for stopping the arrival of the ship as this is not a war process.
It is not clear whether the High Commissioner gave reasons for it or not, but looking at the Indian media in the last few days, it was clearly seen that the side had given too many reasons.
The Indian media had continuously pointed out that this Chinese ship has the ability to take pictures at any place 750 kilometers away. Also, the Indian media had reported that these activities can be done very easily through the satellite through the operation of this spying ship. India in particular is very worried because this area includes many high security sites including their nuclear power plants in South India. But it is not clear whether India took steps to inform the Sri Lankan government of the situation.
However, as of last week, it was seen that the opposition to this Chinese ship had spread beyond India. That is with the decision of America to make a strong intervention against this Chinese ship. For that, they were able to intervene because the United States was also a member of the ‘COD’ (UMBR) organization, which was established with the aim of suppressing Chinese activities in the South Indian region.
Other countries are India, Japan and Australia. Not all those countries maintain good relations with China. According to this, the US also took steps to express its official objection to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs through its ambassador to Sri Lanka, Mrs. Julie Chang, last week. According to this incident, it is very clear that there has been a discussion between the countries of the ‘CODE’ organization based on the Chinese ship. There is also news that India has informed the Sri Lankan government that it has violated the clauses of the Hambantota Agreement.
However, the government’s point of view in all these protests is that this ship is not a military ship, and that it comes to Hambantota only to get fuel and service facilities. Accordingly, to get rid of the crisis of this Chinese ship, Sri Lanka now has two options left. One of them is the suspension of the permission given to the Chinese ship to enter Hambantota.
The second is to provide fuel and other service facilities to the Chinese ship without allowing it to enter Sri Lankan waters. But both these options are not viable. Because it is no secret that if the first option is implemented according to India’s request, it will lead to a serious crisis between China and Sri Lanka.. The next question is whether we have the necessary facilities to implement the second option.
Accordingly, Sri Lanka is currently facing a situation where if you stay on the road, you will die – if you go home, the couple will die. This is because it has been analyzed by many that it is a dangerous situation to allow the Chinese ship to enter Hambantota port without doing anything.
However, the next question that has arisen is why the government is taking such a risk to build a friendship with China. This is because China has even taken steps to refuse aid to Sri Lanka during the difficult times. Accordingly, Sri Lanka’s only option was to approach the International Monetary Fund and adhere to its loan program.
Former Finance Minister Ali Sabri, Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe and Finance Ministry Secretary S. Mr. Siriwardena went to the headquarters of the International Monetary Fund in Washington and took steps to prepare the necessary background for that. Also, a team from the Financial Fund had come to Sri Lanka to start the first round of negotiations there.
But economic analysts have pointed out that due to the current political instability, Sri Lanka will not get the support of the financial fund. Also, due to the recent attack on Gota Go village and the continuous arrest of people involved in the struggle, the government has to face a new crisis. All this shows that the assistance of the financial fund is uncertain and even if some money is received, it may take a long time.
Another loan from India
Accordingly, a few days ago, Sri Lanka had once again taken steps to request a loan of 500 million US dollars from India. As we have come to know, Sri Lanka has been asked about how this loan will be settle this loan. The ‘State Secrets’ column has come to know that Sri Lanka has failed to give answers to this question.
Under that situation, the only option left for Sri Lanka now is to get a credit facility from China like it got from India. After getting that, to pull forward in spite of some crises for a few more months. The news is that Sri Lanka has already requested a loan of 4 billion dollars from China under the condition that no other country will receive loan support for that.
The government must have taken steps to take such a risk with that amount in mind. But as it is said, even though Sri Lanka received a loan of 4 billion dollars from China, it is only enough for the import of essential goods for a short period of two and a half to three months.
The government does not have a clear picture of what to do after that. But even if this money is received from China, it is not possible to predict what situation will arise in the face of the international pressure that Sri Lanka will have to face.
However, in the midst of these political upheavals, another new political discussion has started within the government. That is to somehow drag out the next few months with the Chinese debt and go to a general election next March. According to the powers of the current constitution, the President has the power to dissolve the parliament next March and it is understood that it has been discussed in the internal discussions of the government as the best option to escape the current crisis
According to the government’s analysis, if an election is held at this moment, there will be a situation where no one can get a majority, and Ranil as the president can invite any party to form a government. Also, the people who participated in these discussions are of the opinion that since the President can decide all matters such as who will be appointed as the Prime Minister and how the Council of Ministers will be appointed, he should take advantage of it.
Also, if a general election is called, how to contest it has also been discussed here. There, many people have pointed out that in order to gain more advantage, the UNP should compete under a new sign together with Pohottuwa, where more members of the UNP can be elected to the parliament.
However, when Ranil – Pohottu took over the office of President, he had promised the MPs that he would not dissolve the Parliament for another two and a half years, but it can be mentioned here that under the current situation, it has completely turned upside down.
On the other hand, as we mentioned a week ago, Nimal Lanza, who is a Pohottu MP, has successfully launched the operation to gather Pohottu MPs on Ranil’s behalf. Under that, the support of 56 members of Lanza Pohottu has already been taken to give Ranil permanent support and the end.
Accordingly, Ranil’s plan is to take advantage of this and go for an emergency general election to re-establish a UNP-led government. Or to get rid of being a prisoner of the pot as soon as possible.
These days, while Ranil is placing his pawns here and there to set up the political field in his own favor, Pohottuva is also working with a similar manner. Last Tuesday, Mr. Basil Rajapaksa, who was the national organizer of Pohottu, came to the Pohottu office in Battaramulla and held several rounds of special discussions with several groups.
During those discussions, Basil also took steps to give a special message to the MPs in Pohottuwa. That is to work with the government without creating any conflict during this difficult period.
Basil plans a holiday
I am planning to go to go overseas for two or three months when the court ban on my going to the overseas is removed. Until then, do not create conflicts with the government and continue the work. At this time, we may have various problems. That’s why you have to be careful in these two or three months. Basil said that the government should be supported as much as possible to solve the problems in the country. Accordingly, Basil has planned to revive the bud again after these two or three months have passed.
On the other hand, former President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa has been the main topic of conversation these days. Last week, there were many discussions about what to do about Gota, where many people mentioned that Gota is going to come to Sri Lanka from Singapore soon.
According to the information reported to the ‘Rajya Rahas’ column, Gota is planning to return to Sri Lanka from Singapore next Thursday, the 11th. This has been confirmed by Gota from Singapore in a phone call to Ranil.
However, everything is being prepared for Gota’s return to Sri Lanka. Last week Ranil in a special interview to an international media, the Wall Street Journal, and said that this is not the right time for Gota to come to Sri Lanka. Ranil’s message was clear that Gota should not come to Sri Lanka right now.
But along with Ranil’s statement, Pohottuwa immediately issued an announcement regarding Gota’s journey to Ceylon and said that it is essential for Gota to come to Ceylon at this moment. Sagara Kariyawasam, who was the general secretary of Pohottu, mentioned this while holding a press conference on Monday and he further said that if Gota is ready to enter politics again, Pohottu is ready to create the necessary environment.
In addition to this, the Most Reverend Kappitiyagoda Sealavimala Presbyter of Gatambe Rajopavanarama also sent a letter to the President and informed that if Gotabhaya comes to Sri Lanka, the government should take care to fully ensure his safety.
Accordingly, regarding Gota, it is possible to see that there is some ideological change taking place within Pohottu. Because Gota left the country without telling anyone due to the people’s struggles, some Pohottu seniors who publicly commented recently that ‘Gota has destroyed both us and the government…’ are now showing some sympathy towards Gota.
‘No matter what, Gota worked in the most democratic way for the last two and a half years…’, ‘Even though Gota had to leave the post of president, Gota did not go to fight the strugglers…’ etc., you can see how these Pohottu seniors comment on Gota. And their position is that Gota still has the mandate.
In the midst of all this, on the day of Gota’s arrival in Sri Lanka, a large group of MPs getting ready to go to Katunayake to welcome him. The ‘Rajya Rahas ‘ column has understand that Basil was a bit upset when the news was reported.If that happens,
Basil thought that there would be an unnecessary conflict between the government and Pohottuva, and that Basil has spoken to several members representing Viatmaga who may think that they will go to Katunayake to welcome Gota and have informed them not to do so. Also, the news is that Basil has informed them through several representatives not to publicize the event. Basil’s position is that this is not the time for that.
However, it is doubtful that it would be the same even if Basil sent messages to MPs in this way through different people. Because even though Basil said so, Mahinda has called Gota on many occasions and told him to come to Sri Lanka immediately. ‘It was wrong for you to go. We did not even asked you to go.
Accordingly, Gota is now scheduled to return to Sri Lanka next Thursday. Gota, who is coming in this way, is supposed to get the privileges of a former president, such as security and quarters, but the current news says that Gota is ready to settle in Mirihana, where his house is located.
On the other hand, Gota has not made a statement that he will leave politics completely, even after resigning from the presidency. According to that, after coming to Sri Lanka, there is a lot of possibility to start political activities with Gota system. Moreover, Gota is likely to come to the parliament from the national list.
If Gota Parliament comes from the national list, since Pohottuwa still has the majority in parliament, there is no chance of becoming the Prime Minister.In that case, Gota will have some power in the Parliament as the powers of the Prime Minister will also increase under the 22nd Constitutional Amendment which has been submitted to the Parliament. Accordingly, the week starting next Thursday will be very crucial not only for Gota but also for Sri Lankan politics.
Ranil’s Invitation
Opening the new session of the Parliament last Monday (03), the President took steps to invite all MPs to create an all-party government. Accordingly, since last Monday, it has been seen how the supporting parties within the government as well as the political parties in the opposition have taken steps to hold talks with the President from time to time at the President’s Secretariat. It was also seen that some parties publicly issued statements supporting the President’s all-party government program.
Disparity of opinion in SJB
However, a controversial situation was seen in the Samagi Jana Balawega. SJB’s position from the beginning was that it was ready to support an all-party program from the opposition without taking ministries. But the problem was that several SJB MPs expressed their views that they should take responsibility and join the government at this time.
Sajith took steps to call the party’s management committee last Wednesday to take a final decision on the matter as the group and expressed this opinion within the party.
Sajith, Party General Secretary Ranjith Maddumabandara, Laxman Kiriella, Rajitha Senaratne, Harsha de Silva, Iran Wickramaratne, Tissa Attanayake, Gayantha Karunathilaka, Imtiaz Bakir Makar, Talatha Athukorala and many seniors of the party attended the discussion.
Some seniors such MPs Maddumabandara, Rajitha, Harsha and Iran had declared that they should join the government and take positions and support the formation of an all-party government.
When Sajith asked them to explain the advantageof such a move and that they could support it in the parliament from the opposition, Harsha said that it would be an advantage for the country to take responsibility and join the government. But Sajith pointed out that it can be done while being in the opposition.
But Harsha said that the government will have to take many strong economic decisions in the future, and that certain institutions will have to be privatized, and that these activities can be done easily by being within the government.
Kiriyella said that all that can be done from the opposition, so there is no need to join the government. Mr. Tissa Attanayake and Mr. Imtiaz Bakir Makar, were in the same opinion as Kiriella, pointed out that all this can be done by being in the opposition.
Party General Secretary Ranjith Maddumabandara told a rather strange story. Ranjith said that if we do not join the government at this time, Ranil will split the party and then take revenge from the party. However, when the Party General Secretary made his comments in this way, it was also seen how the rest of the people were looking at him with a bit of surprise.
A conspiracy with in the party!
Meanwhile, Sajith said that a conspiracy is being launched within the government to divide the perty, and he knows very well who the ghost behind it is.
‘I know that there are various conspiracies going on within the government to break the peace with in the SJB. I have found out who is the ghost behind them. These are the same people who gave me U.N.P. He came behind me and bothered me by asking me to form SJB. Now they are the same people who are trying to take MPs into the government and make them ministers…
‘ Gayantha responded by mentioning the name of a certain person. When Sajith said, ‘Yes, he is…’ almost all the people in the meeting could be seen looking at each other’s faces in shock.
Kiriella all alone ?
However, at the end of the discussion, Kiriella made a special statement to everyone. That is that he will never go outside the party’s opinion and get government positions.
‘I will tell you all. As for me, no matter who goes, I will not go to the government and take positions.
We were not voted in our villages to go to the government and get ministryies. That’s why I will not go to the government even if SJB goes. We have the people’s mandate to work from the opposition. We have not been given a mandate to be ministers. Therefore, if you want, go to the government and get ministryies. I will remain all alone in the opposition…’ was Kiriella’s position.
By special correspondent