Transparent Reporting: Unveiling Poll Results Amid Accusations
UNP’s Failed Propaganda Attempt to Instigate Panic Among SJB
Basils’ Failed Attempt to Dissolve Parliament
Clear Message to Ruwan from SJB Regarding Alliance
President’s Desperation to Recall Ministers to Thwart No-Confidence Vote
IMF Delegation’s Meeting with SMEs Facilitated by Sajith
Major Parties to Display Strength on May Day
JVP’s Apprehension: Direct Attacks on Sajith
Results of opinion poll
Last week, we released a significant revelation via our inside politics column, unveiling the results of a poll conducted by a globally recognized institution regarding the forthcoming presidential election. We emphasized that these poll findings had traversed through various echelons of power, reaching not only the government’s upper tiers but also opposition leaders and diplomatic circles. Yet, when we shared the poll results with the public, certain factions accused us of bias toward the SJB and NPP parties. However, our actions as conscientious media professionals were not aimed at favouring any particular group. We simply presented the findings of an impartial opinion poll conducted by an institution with broad acceptance, both domestically and internationally, transcending political boundaries
There’s an ethical rationale behind the decision not to publish the complete results of the opinion poll conducted by the relevant institution in the newspaper. Generally, there are internationally recognized standards for conducting opinion polls. Even if the polls yield compelling data, drawing definitive conclusions from them without adhering to standardized methodologies is unfeasible. Polls should be conducted in a manner that’s agreeable to all parties involved, employing a sample that represents the entire nation and utilizing an approved questionnaire. Otherwise, such polls risk meeting the same fate as those presented to the public by individuals like Dr. Ravi Rannan Eliya in recent times
Ethical Dilemma: Balancing Transparency and Confidentiality in Poll Disclosure
The poll, spanning 40 days, involved a random selection of over 5000 individuals across all provinces except the North East. A comprehensive questionnaire covering all candidates was utilized. Moreover, such opinion polls should not be conducted arbitrarily; instead, they require a request from an individual, institution, or political party, with full financial responsibility. At present, we possess information regarding the parties commissioning the survey and the reputable organization conducting it, but due to ethical considerations – as this survey was conducted at the behest of another party without the relevant party’s permission – we cannot disclose this information. While we are unable to publish the complete results and final report, we provided a rough overview to the public last week, as the poll findings had already unofficially reached the political and diplomatic circles of the country.
Sound background and integrity
Accordingly, this time we are ready to reveal to the country many other information about this institution as well as in this opinion poll through the inside politics column. For more than two decades, not only large private companies in Sri Lanka but also multinational companies have been conducting polls related to their product launches through this institution. Apart from this, this company also conducts opinion polls on the current politics of the country according to the needs of certain parties. The accepted opinion in the field is that the results of these opinion polls conducted by this institution through its island-wide network are almost 90% correct.
It is an opinion accepted not only by those engaged in the political field of this country but also in the diplomatic field. We also disclosed the results of the opinion poll conducted by this institution last week to the country without any hesitation based on the said reliability. On the other hand, even though the media has made various accusations about fake opinion polls published by certain people to make certain political contracts, there was no such accusation or any objection to the opinion poll conducted by this institution that we published. If there was any opposition, it was only a few people who had created a false image by false opinion polls conducted by people like Dr Rannan Eliya, who have no roots and no one knows.
Accepted by many
As soon as we announced the results of this opinion poll, not only those loyal to the president, but even high-ranking leaders related to Samagi Jana Balawega, Pohottuwa and JVP called us and inquired about the information of this opinion poll. There, after mentioning the information of the opinion poll to all of them, it was seen that they were aware of it and they also agreed with the results. We said that in the upcoming presidential election, Samagi Jana Balawegaya will get 39% of the votes, the Jana Balawegaya will get 20% of the votes, Pohottuwa will get 9% of the votes, the United National Party will get 5% of the votes, and the SLFP will get 5% of the votes.
The information in the query was recorded. We also reported that another 24% have not yet made a final decision about the vote. Also, although it was revealed that two candidates received 0.5% of the votes each, we did not publish it because they had already issued public statements that they would run for the presidential election, and there was a possibility of some injustice happening to them through that.
Well-respected
In addition to this, we are ready to reveal more information about this opinion poll to the country through the inside politics column this time. In addition to the percentages obtained by the candidates of each party, the poll also presented information about the positive and negative aspects of each candidate. Accordingly, the positive facts reported about Mr Sajith Premadasa, who is at the forefront of the opinion poll and also the leader of Samagi Jana Balavega, are that Sajith is gaining the highest attraction among women.
The poll also revealed that women have more confidence in Sajith. The second point is that it has been revealed that Sajith has the acceptance of the people as a pure leader free from fraud and corruption. The third point is that it has been confirmed among the people that Sajith stands for the empowerment of the poor. The fourth point is that the people have recognized Sajith as a leader who works for the people and can implement the decisions taken even when he is in opposition.
Apart from this, negative information about Sajith is also included in this opinion poll. One of the main ones is that Sajith shows some lack in dealing with the international community. Also, Sajith has been doing things alone without a team is cited as a negative fact, and the vote attraction among males is at a low level.
Popular among Males
This opinion poll also includes a chapter on Mr Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Force. It has been pointed out that Anura has been introduced as a good party leader and that he is eloquent, credible and logically presented. Also, this opinion poll has shown that Anura has the attraction of the people and that Anura has more popularity, especially among the male side.
What has been pointed out as negative about Anura is that there seems to be no clear policy between him and the National People’s Force. As the second point, it has been pointed out that there is no confidence in the people who carry out a government. The third point is that women are not attracted to Anura. As the fourth point, it has been pointed out that is it possible to do what Anura says.
Ability to accept challenges
It also includes a separate section on Mr Ranil Wickramasinghe, who is the President as well as the leader of the United National Party. According to that part, there are only negative things about Ranil. The only positive point was the ability to accept challenges.
False promises
There were mostly negative things about the bud. The two biggest negative points about them were that the people’s trust was broken and that the people were in a state of uncertainty about them because there was no permanent candidate.
In this way, with the special disclosure we made last week, many rounds of discussions were held between the main political parties to analyze the information at the party level. It is reported that Pohottuwa as well as the National People’s Force have been talking about the 24% vote percentage that was on the fence without making a decision so far in these discussions. The leaders of Pohottou have pointed out that the vast majority of the 24% undecided are Pohottou voters, so they should put more weight in the future to get at least 15% to 20% of them back to the party. Also, the National People’s Force has now put all its weight to get more of this 24% for its party and increase its number of votes to almost 30% in the next election.
UNP rattled
In addition, the United National Party, led by the President, held several rounds of long discussions last week after these results. It is reported that many members of the UNP expressed their opinions from the position that the result of this opinion poll is correct.
Very remarkably it was noted several people who had expressed the opinion that the SJB voter base has decreased all the time and that the JVP is higher than the SJB, have changed their position this time. In the past, when these people said that the party’s morale had declined, only two UNP seniors had stated that it was not the case and that the party’s morale was still high. The two of them also participated in the discussion held recently, and it is reported that they have mentioned that the results of this opinion poll show that their position is correct.
Political Machinations Unveiled: Exposing Secret Alliances and Deception
However, the president and certain UNP leaders have orchestrated a substantial propaganda campaign alleging that the JVP is surpassing the SJB intentionally. Their ulterior motive was to instil a belief within the SJB party that to defeat the JVP, an alliance with the UNP is imperative, thus coercing the party into winning the election. To achieve this end, the President utilized approximately ten senior MPs aligned with him within the party, deploying them to convey this notion and infiltrate the SJB. These MPs clandestinely met with the President repeatedly, diligently working to propagate this belief within society.
In tandem, leaders purporting to be neutral at the national level recently engaged with the business community, warning of dire consequences if the JVP were to return to power, painting a picture of impending chaos. The purported aim of these “independent” MPs, claiming to represent the nation’s interests, was to sway SJB support towards the President’s UNP and reconcile the two parties.
The inside politics column is poised to expose these so-called independent leaders and unveil the identities of the ten MPs who colluded from within the SJB. We do so not for any other reason than to shed light on the deceit of MPs elected by the people, who betray public trust by making clandestine deals with government officials. The electorate must reconsider their support for such individuals in future general elections.
Conspiracy to panic people
In addition to this, the fake opinion poll report conducted by Dr Rannan Eliya also came to the fore, showing JVP as a contract to unite SJB and UNP. We have reported this on the inside politics column on several occasions. There we pointed out that there was a plan behind this to scare the public by showing that the JVP was on top, and that this opinion poll was conducted by Rannan Eliya according to the government’s wishes. With the real opinion poll that we uncovered last week, it has been proved that Rannan was a conspiracy by the government.
However, after this disclosure we made last week, several discussions were held within the Samagi Jana Balawegaya. A group of SJB MPs were upset with these results, and they took steps to ask the SJB leaders about the truth and falsity of the poll. If the opinion poll is true, why are the results not officially released to the country? There, SJB leaders pointed out that according to international rules, the organization that conducted the poll cannot officially publish such a poll until the parties who provided financial contributions to the poll approve.
Show strength on May Day
Apart from this, after we released the results of this opinion poll, it has been seen that the respective parties have gained some mental stimulation rather than a mental collapse. That is because of the discussion within the respective parties about what steps should be taken to increase the current percentage. Accordingly, all parties have chosen the upcoming May Day rally as the final target to increase their vote percentage.
In particular, the Samagi Jana Balawega held several rounds of talks last week to discuss the holding of the May Parade. There, Sajith and other seniors had emphasized in those discussions that since this is the last May rally to be held before the presidential election, more than one hundred thousand people should be called to Colombo and the May rally should be held grandly like no other party has done in history.
The MPs pointed out that due to the result of the opinion poll, the SJB Party members at the village level are now in a big awakening and therefore, they would be able to bring a huge crowd to Colombo very easily to the May rally this time.
However, SJB has not changed the decision taken to hold massive meetings at the district level and constituency level until May. Accordingly, SJB has prepared all arrangements to hold another big meeting in Galle on Saturday.
Pohottuwa to play big
Apart from SJB, Pohottuwa’s Basil Rajapaksa is also making plans to play a big game on May Day again to raise the party’s vote percentage which has fallen to 9%. As usual, JVP will bring a large crowd to Colombo and put on a big show.
However, it became evident last week that the JVP is somewhat apprehensive about the outcome of this opinion poll. This concern surfaced following a vigorous attack launched by the JVP against the SJB and Sajith during a JVP meeting held over the weekend after our announcement of the poll results. Anura directly targeted Sajith, criticizing him with phrases like ‘if tall security’ – implying ‘if Short labour’, and referring a talisman visibly worn around Sajith’s waist, which became noticeable as his shirt became unbuttoned.
SJB decisive response
As a result of the opinion poll findings, a decline within the UNP prompted renewed efforts to broker an agreement with the Samagi Jana Balawega. Deputy leader of the UNP, Ruwan Wijewardena, spearheaded this initiative. Last week, Ruwan persistently sought a meeting with a senior member of the SJB. Upon communication of this request to Sajith, the response was affirmative for a personal meeting, with a caution to approach political discussions carefully.
Following Sajith’s advice, a private meeting between Ruwan and the SJB senior took place in Colombo last week. During this discussion, it was observed that Ruwan, for the first time, acknowledged Samagi Jana Balawegaya’s lead in the presidential election. Consequently, Ruwan proposed to the SJB senior that the UNP and SJB should ally to contest either a general or presidential election. However, the SJB senior provided a decisive response, stating that all avenues for such collaboration have been effectively closed at this juncture.
No! with UNP
“There is no room for that now. The UNP united under the ‘Pot’ banner to elect a president and govern, but they have now been rejected by the people. The UNP brand has been effectively extinguished. If the UNP joins forces with other parties, it will blur the lines between them, making SJB appear aligned with the government. This would only benefit the JVP, who could then surpass us all. That’s why it cannot be done. Each party must contest separately, allowing the UNP to compete on its own merits. After the elections, we can explore coalition possibilities.”
This stance reaffirms what we have consistently highlighted in this column: SJB will not entertain joining forces with the UNP under any circumstances. Additionally, despite some UNP members previously claiming the JVP’s lead, they now acknowledge that SJB is in the lead, with a significant gap between SJB and the JVP.
Given the backdrop, the Inside Politics column has obtained significant insights into the plans of the Pohottuwa party. Before the release of our poll results, Basil conducted a separate poll while in America. According to this poll, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya was leading. Basil conveyed to many individuals that SJB (referring to Sajith) currently holds the lead in the elections, indicating that significant efforts are required to improve Pohottuwa’s position.
Consequently, following our poll’s findings, Basil and the Pohottuwa party have recognized that both the President and the UNP lack substantial popular support. Therefore, Basil is strategizing to elevate Pohottuwa, currently in third place, to second place.
Basil is busy
Basil embarked on an exceptionally covert operation at the party office in Nelum Mawatha, Battaramulla, last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Despite being aware of Pohottuwa’s internal divisions – with factions aligned with the President, Sajith, and sitting independently in the opposition – Basil plans to push for a general election before the presidential election. He believes securing a victory in the general election is crucial to salvage the party’s reputation and the Rajapaksa family’s legacy, as they would likely face defeat in a presidential election under the current circumstances.
Basil’s request rejected
As part of this strategy, Basil sent a message last week to the Samagi Jana Balawegaya and the Tamil National Alliance inquiring whether they would support a motion to dissolve parliament. However, upon receiving this message, Sajith unequivocally expressed his refusal to collaborate with Pohottuwa. Sajith informed the Pohottuwa representatives that he is prepared to contest the presidential election and advised them to utilize their parliamentary votes in favor of the speaker during the no-confidence motion against the speaker. Additionally, the JVP exhibited reluctance towards a general election, declaring their unwillingness to sign such a resolution. Consequently, Basil’s proposal to dissolve parliament faced considerable opposition and was thwarted.
Basil’s next move
Accordingly, Basil launched the next operation and proceeded to make personal phone calls to all the other ministers, except for two or three people in Pohottuwa who were extremely close to the President. Through those calls, Basil indicated to them that they will have to face a general election by the end of this year.
The presidential election has to be held in October. It cannot be postponed in any way. No matter who becomes the president from that presidential election, the parliament will be dissolved within two or three weeks. If such an election goes, many people in Pohottuwa will not have to come to parliament again. We should go to a general election before the presidential election. If that happens, many of the people who are currently in the parliament can come back to the parliament. So let’s all come together and go for a general election first. Go to the district now and start organizing activities.’ Basil implicitly told all of them that the President and the UNP have no popular base in the country.
Basil, who spoke personally to all the members of the party in this way, took steps to meet the local government members at the weekend. After that, he took steps to meet the group of parliamentarians on Monday. The most special event to be seen here was that after some time all the Ministers of Pohottuwa participated in that meeting. There too, Basil pointed out to the group that at this time it would be advantageous for the party to go for a general election first.
No confidence motion defeated
The government defeated the motion of no confidence against Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena by getting 117 votes. Even though the government took 117 votes to protect the speaker, in the debate on the matter, it was seen that the opposition criticized the speaker’s actions.
3-day debate
In the initial meeting of party leaders, the opposition insisted on a 3-day debate period, but the government remained steadfast, offering only 2 days. Eventually, the opposition reluctantly agreed to the 2-day timeframe. However, just before the debate was set to begin, the government realized that the entire opposition had united to vote against the speaker. Unfortunately, at that time, approximately 15 ministers from the ruling party were abroad on official trips.
Recognizing the potential implications, the ruling party’s chief organizer, Prasanna Ranatunga, promptly relayed to the government that they could only secure around 100 votes in the no-confidence vote, signalling a significant blow to the government’s stability. Despite Prasanna’s earnest attempts to reach the traveling ministers, none responded to his calls. Upon being informed of the situation, the President conveyed to Susil in a cabinet meeting that given the difficulty of recalling these ministers to Sri Lanka, they should grant the opposition an additional day for the no-confidence debate, allowing sufficient time for deliberation.
Ultimately, it was a remarkable turn of events when Susil, who initially opposed the idea of a 3-day debate, ultimately conceded and agreed to extend the debate period to 3 days.
President call ministers back
Meanwhile, the President assumed the responsibility of recalling the overseas ministers. Through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the President dispatched messages to the embassies of the respective countries where the ministers were located, urging them to return to Sri Lanka before the scheduled date of the no-confidence vote. Such direct intervention by the Foreign Ministry to contact MPs abroad is exceptionally rare. However, given the critical nature of the no-confidence motion against the Speaker, the President took decisive action to ensure the presence of the MPs.
By the morning of the no-confidence debate, approximately 120 members of the ruling party were present in the cabinet, demonstrating the success of the President’s efforts to recall the overseas ministers.
During the no-confidence debate, the public was exposed to two significant revelations for the first time. Firstly, the Speaker’s letter to the President disclosed his use of his voting power in the appointment of the Inspector General of Police. Secondly, a note containing the ‘Minutes’ maintained by the Secretary of the Legislative Council, detailing all events from the meeting held for the election of the Speaker, was presented. Of particular significance was the clear recording of the Inspector General of Police selection process, which showed four votes in favour, two against, and two abstentions.
IMF next instalment
A delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is currently visiting Sri Lanka, and following discussions with the government, it was announced that they were close to reaching an agreement regarding the release of the next instalment of IMF funds. However, in line with their customary practice, representatives of the financial institution also engaged in negotiations with opposition groups.
During their previous visit to Sri Lanka, the JVP had garnered significant popularity in the country. As a result, the IMF representatives had visited the JVP head office in Pelawatte to meet with JVP representatives. However, on this occasion, they opted for a different approach. Instead of visiting the JVP head office, they invited JVP representatives to the Shangri-La Hotel where they were staying. Consequently, the JVP representatives met with the IMF representatives at the hotel. It remains unclear whether this decision was influenced by the findings of the international opinion poll, which we previously disclosed, regarding the percentage of votes received by the JVP.
However, during this visit, the focus of the financial fund shifted towards negotiations with the main opposition party, Samagi Jana Balawega. Sajith informed them that they would meet with SJB leaders on Tuesday, coinciding with the start of the debate on the no-confidence motion in Parliament. Consequently, all SJB leaders, including Sajith himself, would be present in Parliament, offering an opportunity for discussion there.
SME too met IMF
In an unprecedented move during the meeting with SJB, Sajith requested to allow another special group to meet with the representatives of the financial fund: small and medium-scale entrepreneurs of the country. These entrepreneurs have been vocal about the detrimental impact certain conditions imposed by the financial fund have had on small and medium-scale businesses in Sri Lanka. Despite their grievances, the government has seemingly ignored their plight, resulting in the closure of numerous businesses and the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs. Sajith, acknowledging their concerns, had previously raised this issue both in and outside of Parliament.
In response to the entrepreneurs’ request to meet with Sajith and the representatives of the financial fund, Sajith presented the request to the fund’s representatives, who surprisingly agreed to it. Such actions are uncommon for institutions like the International Monetary Fund. However, in a departure from the norm, the representatives of the financial fund accommodated the entrepreneurs, engaging in lengthy discussions to address their concerns.
Financial Policies
During the extensive discussion between SJB and the representatives of the Financial Fund, Iran Wickramaratne provided a comprehensive overview of national financial policies. Sajith, Harsha, and Kabir elaborated on how these policies would be implemented under a future SJB government. The representatives of the financial fund inquired about the government’s perception of the economy’s recovery thus far. Sajith and his colleagues clarified that SJB is not opposed to the financial fund’s program but emphasized the need for certain adjustments to certain aspects of the program.
Sujeewa Senasinghe, also partaking in the discussion, posed a unique question to the representatives of the financial fund regarding the recent participants in the fund’s program. The representatives mentioned Northern Ireland as a notable example. Subsequently, Sujeewa requested information regarding the financial fund program in Northern Ireland. The representatives of the financial fund readily agreed to Sujeewa’s request, assuring him that they would promptly provide the requested information to SJB.