With the rumours of Gota’s comming back to Sri Lanka veteran Political Analyst Upul Joseph Fernando pens his analysis in a vivid angle of the political landscape in Sri Lanka at the moment.
When the impeachment motion was proposed against then-President Ranasinghe Premadasa, one of his most trusted monks advised him. After carefully reading Premadasa’s horoscope, the monk counseled him.
You’re going through a terrible curse right now. When the king’s time came, when an evil period befell him, he went into exile to the forest to escape the evil. He abandons his kingship and goes to the forest, believing that life is more valuable than kingship, and returns when the curse period is over. You can’t go to the forest anymore, so leave the country. ‘When the evil period is over, come back,’ said the monk to Premadasa.
This is the advice given to Premadasa by the monk.
How can I give up on my enemies and be a loser…?
That was Premadasa’s reply to the monk.
When we see what happened to Gotabha, we are reminded of this old story. It’s unclear whether Gota was cursed or not. But Gota lost his throne and fled.
Why did Gota go…?’
When Gota was nominated as the presidential candidate of the Podujana Peramuna, Basil said that Gota is like the ‘Terminator’.
During that time, then Prime Minister Ranil gave a very Sinhala meaning to the word Terminator. He said the Terminator is a destroyer.
If the Terminator comes, the democracy we won for the country during the last five years will be mocked. Freedom of the press will be ridiculous. Making a mockery of human rights…’
This is Ranil’s answer to Basil’s Terminator story on August 10, 2019
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‘So why couldn’t Gota destroy the struggle …?’
Everyone’s puzzle is this. During the Maithri-Ranil government, both Maithri and Rajapaksa called Ranil ‘butterfly’. Finally today the butterfly has become a terminator. Key Terminator Gota has become a butterfly and flown away.
‘Will that butterfly come again to drink nectar in the bud…?’
Since the day Ranil became the president, he has been shying away from the struggle because of the fear that he too will have to go home from the struggle. But Gota has got the opportunity to set foot in Sri Lanka again today because Ranil, not a democrat s making fun of the struggle. On the other hand, while Ranil was destroying the struggle, all who said Gota Go Home, said Gota was good. Gota is afraid of the people. On the one hand, Ranil ridiculed the struggle and paved the way for Gota, but he also made Gota a democrat who he said was like Hitler.
Ranil was regarded as a good gamer until captured power, but Rajapaksa took advantage of his game plan after the took power. In 2015, Ranil and Maithri sent the Rajapaksa home and after that, he saved the Rajapaksa from their cases and protected the Rajapaksa, and got the Rajapaksa to end Maithri’s dominance and formed a new party. Ranil thought that the Rajapaksa’s new party would break the votes of Maithrie’s United People’s Freedom Alliance and pave him and the UNP the opportunity to win the presidential election through breakaway votes and established UNP votes. But what happened was that the Podujana Peramuna made Ranil angry so much that he could not win a seat.
Now, thanks to the Rajapaksa’s, Ranil thinks that he can protect his presidency if he culminates the struggle. But what has happened is that when Ranil made fun of the struggle and eliminates it, Gota gets his path cleared to come back to Sri Lanka.
‘What will Gota do now when he comes to Sri Lanka…?’
Many people ponder on this. The reason is clear. Gota is hated by the public. Those who voted for Gota also hate him. Gota cannot escape the slander that Gota bankrupted this country. But the Podujana Peramuna has a voter base that worships the Rajapaksas. This voter base is in a coma today. It’s like being politically anesthetized.
There is no Rajapaksa to worship by them again. Mahinda is so weak that he cannot swing the wind again. Basil is not popular. Namal has no recognition. Ranil, Dallas, and Wimal are in a deadly battle to capture this vote base. The only way for the Rajapaksas to keep this vote base intact is to pump life to Gota and revitalize the voter base out of the slumber in which they are at present. Gota should be activated if Rajapaksa’s to survive in politics.
‘Will Gota come to the limelight again …?’
If the Rajapaksas allow Ranil to become president and hide away like this, the Rajapaksas will be terminated forever. If the Rajapaksas think of coming back as the saviors of the people when Ranil becomes unpopular it will not happen. Because the Rajapaksas have to pay for each and every wrong move Ranil makes. 50% of the responsibility for every decision made by Ranil get credited to Rajapaksas. The reason is that the Rajapaksas made Ranil the president. So, it is impossible to think that the Rajapaksas are calculating that Ranil will become a failure and they could come to power. However, If they take over this government power once again, Rajapaksas can save their vote base which they are about to lose.
‘How will Rajapaksa regain control of the government…?’
The rumour of Gota coming to Sri Lanka and coming to parliament from the national list is fabricated to create the way for it.
‘Will Gota come to the Parliament …?’
After, JR, Premadasa, and Wijetunga, all became presidents after leaving office of the presidency and became sick of not being able to stay at home. Chandrika also contracted this ailment. That’s why she fought hard to protect the Sri Lankan leadership after she retired from the presidency. Mahinda too lost in 2015 and became MP because of that ailment. Maithreet fell victim to that disease. Gota has a higher chance of contracting the disease because the international human rights organizations are waiting to sue him for the violation of human rights during the war.
‘If Gota comes to Parliament and 134 MPs sign a petition saying that Gota should be President…?’
Before that, if 113 MPs sign that Gota should become the Prime Minister, Ranil will have to appoint Gota the Prime Minister. If 134 MPs sign a letter saying that Gota should be the president, the legitimacy of Ranil’s mandate will be questioned. The constitution prevents the removal of a president who was elected by popular vote because the president is elected by popular vote. But a prime minister appointed by the parliament can be removed by 113 MPs. If a prime minister who is elected by 113 votes in the parliament can be removed from 113 seats, why can’t a president who is elected by 134 votes in the parliament be removed from 134 votes…?’
That is the reason why Ranil can’t sleep when he hears Gota is coming to Sri Lanka.
Upul Joseph Fernando