The recent visit of the Chinese dual-purpose naval tracking vessel Yuan Wang-5 at Hambantota port and consequential media reports abounded with unreasonable criticism of Indian diplomacy and Neighbourhood First approach, and superfluous analyses twisted around the binary of India’s emergency economic aid and “ungrateful Sri Lanka”.
However, India’s security concern raised with the visit of the ship was convincing, and it must be addressed by its own mechanism. The Chinese intention, Sri Lankan response and Indian approach need a rationale interpretation. Hence, the article narrates the politics engendered with the visit of the said ship, through the following Six Takeaways.
First, there is a clear message from Sri Lanka that it cannot afford the displeasure of either China or India. Amid India and US concerns over the docking of the Chinese ‘spy ship” at Hambantota port, holding the visit of China’s dual-purpose naval tracking vessel back for 5 days, the Sri Lankan Foreign Ministry statement blaming India and the US for not offering ‘concrete reasons’ to deny entry of the ship, the conditions imposed by Sri Lanka on China to not use the ship for military purposes, and at the last, grand ceremony by Sri Lankan government officials to welcome the ship at the port, merely demonstrates how Sri Lanka is anxious to balance India and China as it cannot afford discontent of either of the two.
This is not the first time the visiting Chinese vessels have created controversy and constrained the officials of India, Sri Lanka and China to exchange words. Chinese nuclear-powered submarine had come close to Indian water- near Tamil Nadu- in quick succession in 2014; later, during PM Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka in 2017; the country declined the permission of another Chinese submarine to visit Sri Lanka concerning India’s apprehension regarding its security.
Second, ignoring Chinese interests will not always be easy for the countries which are in the trap of Chinese lucrative assistance. The people and the government of Sri Lanka, fall short to differentiate the meaning of economic aid and economic assistance or loans. This is also true for many small states in our neighbourhood and extended neighbourhoods.
As debt-ridden Sri Lanka is compelled to tune with Chinese wishes, India’s instant support of over $3.8billion to Sri Lanka could not impact too much on China- Sri Lanka- India balance of power equations in the region. Sri Lanka, facing the nastiest economic crisis since its independence, has the realisation that it would not be possible for her to straighten out from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and resolute the debt restructuring problem without the help of one of its largest creditors China.
Third, certainly, this was not a failure of diplomacy. The ongoing controversies over the visit of the Chinese “spy ship” Yuang Wang-5 at Hambantota failed to put off or delay the promised gift of Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft to Sri Lanka. India delivered the aircraft to Sri Lanka on 15th August 2022, just a day before the docking of Yuang Wang-5 at Hambantota port. This was smart diplomacy from India, adhering to the policy of Neighbourhood First and SAGAR- Security and Growth for All in the Region. India is now making renewed efforts to enhance defence and security cooperation with maritime neighbours.
India’s policy of wait and watch and intense engagement has paid off in Maldives and Seychelles in recent years. The reactionary approach always carries the risk to augment the anti-India sentiments in the neighbouring countries and higher electoral support in favour of political parties or leaders propelling anti-India or pro-China agenda. The policy of patience or wait and watch coalesced with timely delivery of projects will better serve New Delhi’s interest in the neighbourhood.
Fourth, learned from the experience in Nepal and Maldives, India avoided exerting any pressure on Sri Lankan government over the visit of Yuang Wang-5 at the Hambantota port. Indeed, India raised her security concern with the government of Sri Lanka. Negating the claims that India had put up pressure on Sri Lanka to call off the docking of the Chinese ship at Hambantota port, the MEA spokesperson explicitly argued, “We reject the insinuation in the statement about India. Sri Lanka is a sovereign country and makes its own independent decision.” India emphasises the centrality of Sri Lanka in its Neighbourhood First policy and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of SAGAR.
As India knows of the cost of frequent interference in the internal affairs of neighbours, it chooses to not dictate to Sri Lanka the issues acceptable under international law. Definitely, repeated dictations on policies lead to deterioration in bilateral relations, further augmentation of anti-India sentiment, and the ensuing tilt of the balance of power in the favour of China.
In essence, for India, sustaining its influence in the region turns out to be intricate when the second largest economy and one of the fastest growing military power in the world seems determined to enhance its sway in the region- the sphere of influence of India. Although economics is in the favour of China, it will not be easy for China to neutralise the blessings of size and geography that India enjoys in the neighbourhood. It all depends on how India is manoeuvring in the region, If India is fail to play her cards sensibly in the neighbourhood, China is ready to grasp the opportunity.
Fifth, the Chinese action at Hambantota, reinforces the long-existing perception that the Chinese network of commercial ports around the world could be converted into a network of military bases. many security and military analysts in the US and India have long stated the fate of Hambantota. The fear, that the PLA navy might make use of this port infrastructure for military purposes despite Sri Lanka’s repetitive assurance to dissent, grew with the docking of the Chinese satellite tracking ship Yuang Wang-5.
Sixth, it is imperative for India to strengthen its own security mechanism to keep eye on the activities of the PLA Navy in the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean region. It will neither be prudent nor practical to expect neighbours to always act according to our convenience.
There is a need to maximise the potential of the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep to keep eye on the activities of PLA Navies in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea respectively. The recent steps taken by India to build up military infrastructure in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands must be appreciated. But, it is not enough as the PLA Navy has multiplied its activities in and around the Bay of Bengal.
( Courtesy timesofindia.indiatimes.com)